#SPX #SKEW Chart

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The most overlooked and under-estimated measure in $SPX Options Universe

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from a partially sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 78F, expected range is 90/75

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Econ Data on deck today is: 

HAPI NT v1.10 is online now

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Login to HA website and download the Zip file from https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/Prop_Indicators.asp

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battle tested proprietary trading systems to daytrade ES & NQ Futures - Hamzei Analytics

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REMOVE existing HAPI NT Codes from your NT

Import new HAPI NT Codes pack you just downloaded

Questions? Contact Jason Gorham I cc'ed above

Here is what we added:

A great suggestion, came is early this morning, from a very loyal and dedicated HA trader: he wanted to change the opacity of HAPICIDOT (new name, instead of HAPICIDIFFDOT) and location shift of the DOTs above the high and below the low

We appreciate all suggestions and improvements

Remember Sept 18th we have a webinar with Ninja

See you there..........

Market Commentary for Wednesday, September 10, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are once again looking at silly season on display as Korea and Singapore jump hand over fist into the #ORCL earnings.  I don't know if I've ever seen a bigger move on a large cap stock like that when the earnings and revenue missed. It's all smoke and mirrors at this point - you are paying for potential future promises that already look like they might be on shaky ground.  

Poor #CHWY reported earnings and it's red - there were a lot of puts purchased before that report at really expensive prices, so I think that one could possibly rally after the open as those things close up.  Most people didn't make any money betting against the drop because the put prices were so expensive.  

The story today is #PPI.  If we get a "beat" then it's good for markets, if it's a miss, we are going to have heartburn. It really is that simple.  Betting markets look like to me they are leaning for a slight beat on CPI tomorrow.  I still think it is going to be a big miss for both PPI and CPI.  

The setup is very poor here with regard to At the Money Gamma.  I'm seeing levels of Call Gamma to Put Gamma that are concerning and very bearish over the short to intermediate term.  A Vix spike of +20-30% would do the trick to reset the sentiment here.  We need it badly (AGAIN).  

Crypto has quietly corrected and we are seeing stuff like #MSTR hit some major Yearly support levels.  #COIN is similar, hitting some major anchored VWAPs from the last pivot lows and starting to curl up.  

My metrics say today should be a good day for us to try to trade, we'll see if we can get some selling to materialize here after PPI and try to buy some dips intraday.  The 30-minute charts are overdone and need to rest / sell.  We still can't get the Call Walls for SPY to move up, that is very concerning to see traders unwilling or unable to roll calls up and out. It makes it structurally difficult to go up.

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0819 ET on Sept 10th.

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 79F, expected range is 88/77

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

On Econ Calendar Today:

Mortgage Apps popped !!

August PPI is on deck in 30 minutes

and here is the Yield-to-Maturity Charts for 91 day to 30 day before this much-anticipated & crucial PPI data comes out

Market Commentary for Monday, September 8, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are levitating again on a very thin bid into chip stocks from the Retail Brigade.  Breadth is bad, only about a quarter of stocks are going up at the moment.  

Argentina #ARGT had an election, and markets are tumbling over there, off 10%.  That setup actually looked pretty good for a long - very surprising to see that outcome.  Conservatives are getting bounced because they went too fast too furious with the austerity and still kept all the corruption people dislike.  Possibly a pre-cursor to US mid-term elections?  We'll have to see.  Don't forget Musk was wielding a chain saw just a few months ago just like Milei was in Argentina.  The irony of both of them now going into the "Wood Chipper" has me chuckling just a little bit. 

#Bonds are rallying another 1% and hitting some long-term resistance levels in the form of a falling Yearly VWAP at 89.66 on #TLT.  Same with Mortgage REITS like #MORT - they are overbought here.  Nice moves on all that stuff, but it's getting to be time to take profit.

I'm seeing very concerning things with Vix right now, it's setup for a big spike.  It is not a terrible time if #VIX calls are your thing to hedge.  Retail interest in stocks and momentum trading is approaching 2021 top levels, possibly even more in the case of some of the IBD 50 stocks.  That never ends well. 

We are gapping into 580 on QQQ (the Call Wall that won't move up).  That's usually bearish.  We got a big slam down when we did it on Friday.  Could be same today.

My metrics say it could go either way today (either really good or really bad) so I usually skip it if I have a chance it could be really bad.  

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 1040 ET on Sept 8th.

another BIG miss in NFP

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 August NFP came at 22k vs 77k

yesterday Job Cuts Reports by Challenger had higher (almost 86k) mainly in construction and manufacturing

rates dropped again today

Fed will cut 91-day T-Bill rates this month on Sept 17th = 25bp or possibly 50bp

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 80F, expected range is 83/77

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

August NFP is on deck

Market Commentary for Thursday, September 4, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We got a nice little 30-minute rally at the end of the day, otherwise yesterday didn't look so hot.  I sat there for almost 2 hours waiting on the thing to move in the early afternoon and gave up right before it went up (I felt like a dummy, but it wore me out).  

Two stocks accounted for most of the rise, both on news that they wouldn't get broken up with anti-trust stuff.  The ruling was a joke if you read it like I did.  The market didn't even expect the judge to cave like he did and the market is pretty good at pricing that kind of thing in.  

But we don't trade the market we want, we trade the market we got.  And this one has GOOG up at levels where I wouldn't touch it.  I said yesterday it was a short and it's down 1.3% this morning. 

Jobs data is splashed all over CNBC Comedy Central Show.  ADP data is showing very steep weakening of the labor market, but I don't care as much about that.  

The one I cared about this morning is the Challenger Jobs Cuts report and that thing is showing we are about to see a Tsunami of layoffs.  Intentions are up 38% y/y now, which is up last month from just 13% y/y.  That is inflecting like a Hockey stick now.  

Not only that but the ADP report showed 4.4% wage inflation for job stayers and a whopping 7.1% wage increases for people hopping jobs.  If you have a job and switch you are "in" and pass the scrutiny, but if you've lost your job, you are considered "out", and you aren't getting hired.  Hiring intentions in August are just 1,494, down 53.3 percent from 3,200 in July and down 75.5 percent form 6,101 in August 2024.  Awful. 

The definition of Stagflation.

My original plan going into the year was to look for the manufacturing and industrial production to roll over in August (it has along with the jobs market) and for that to eventually result in a recession in the Spring of 2026 and a large-scale spike in inflation sometimes between now and the Spring of next year.  A secular Bear market should come as a result sometime between.  So far, it looks like it's lining up well.  The only tricky thing will be when the AI Bubble finally pops.  #NVDA earnings definitely showed the very first signs of weakening demand in spots.  

I do have top signals on the weeklies for the #MAGS ETF (#MAG 7).  Last seen in December right before the Bear Market and before that in July 2024 before a big correction started. 

That doesn't mean we stop trading or get all bear-ed up, it just means we get ready to get out and have a plan, that's all.  We'll do well shorting the market when the time comes and in the mean-time, we pick our spots and take longs with measured risk.  Despite what we see today, we need to realize it takes time for the rest of the world to see what we see.  

My metrics say today is poor for day trading, so I'm skipping it in favor of some Rest and Relaxation.  

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 1009 ET on Sept 4th

Market Commentary for Tuesday, September 3, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We got a major crypto wipeout yesterday in the altcoin universe.  Today they are rallying - there was a TON of puts purchased on the open yesterday in the Gemini Exchange (the one that serves crypto).  Should be a nice setup again to squeeze early shorts. 

#GOOG got a reprieve from anti-trust penalties and it's up 8%.  Looks like a short to me.  

We will see JOLTS (job openings) data today (this is one that could be influenced by Trump's new appointee) - will be fun to see what the numbers say. 

NQ has a nice 23475-23485 on NQ is a heavy, heavy resistance line that needs to get overcome.  I am watching and seeing if we can do it today.  I have my doubts.  

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0930 ET on Sept 3rd.