Morning Commentary for Friday, August 15, 2025 by Peter Cook

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We got some retail sales today, they were pretty good actually, but weak without cars.  I see that anecdotally down here.  Lots of people are trading in cars and buying EVs now that the tax credit is expiring.  Should be a good quarter for #TSLA.   People asked me why we didn't sell harder on the #PPI news yesterday and the answer is that the market was pretty hedged and it's close to Op-Ex.  The real move is going to come after this afternoon and into Monday.  

#PPI is very bad, it will flow to #CPI and it's getting worse because the tariff rates are only about 9% now, headed up to 15% as the Tariffs finally get implemented.  All of it will be getting worse not better and it's showing up all over the place in the data. 

We did get Consumer Sentiment this morning and it was not good at 58.6 (a big "miss").  People are back to being worried about Tariffs again.  Year ahead inflation expectations surged from 4.5% to 4.9%.  

We got import export prices this morning showing a very large increase of 0.4% m/m in imports.  That's inflation from #Tariffs again showing up in another report.  That's not good.  

While we did see the puts at 642 give us support yesterday and some of them are still left.  So, 642 on #SPY is still support, but it's not large support.  Under 642 on #SPY and we can sell pretty quickly.

I'm still leaning hard on that as support and will press longs today.  If we go under 642 on #SPY, I will not take long trades.  It's pretty simple today. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

NQ Chatroom Moderator (Go2Mtg)

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

Hamzei Analytics' ES Futures Chatroom Testimonial

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This came in the other day

If interested to make a steady side income, click here:  https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_ES_details.asp

Billing starts for one week, then 2 weeks and then monthly.  You can cancel at any time.  Make sure your speakers are working and you are using Windows 11 Pro and high-speed internet.  Read the three PDFs that govern HA Chatrooms & Reporting before signing-up.

-Matt

This came in the other day

If interested to make a steady side income, click here:  https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_ES_details.asp

Billing starts for one week, then 2 weeks and monthly.  You can cancel at any time.  Make sure your speakers are working and you are using WIndows 11 Pro and high-speed internet.  Read the three PDFs that govern HA Chatrooms & Reporting before signing-up.

-Matt

_____________________________________________________________

From: Victor Nguyen <Victorwynnteamrealty@outlook.com>
Sent: Tuesday, August 12, 2025 5:04 PM
To: Fari.Hamzei@HamzeiAnalytics.com <Fari.Hamzei@HamzeiAnalytics.com>
Cc: mark@hamzeianalytics.com <mark@hamzeianalytics.com>
Subject: HamzeiAnalytics ES Chatroom Testimonial

As a realtor with an open morning schedule, i have tried to make a side income with futures daytrading in the morning before work.  I have tried many different signal service with little or  no success.  I did a Grok4 search to find the top ES signal service and it led me to Hamzei Analytics.   I was skeptical when i looked at performance of HA ES Futures Chatroom. 

My doubts were the ability to get filled same price that was recommended. 

After being in the room and taking trades on Mark Esposito's call outs and getting same or better fills as what's posted on the performance equity chart I was a believer.  

 

A risk reward of 1:1  a win rate of 70% is incredible.  2.5 profit factor - If you know what that means. you know that's unheard of with such a large sample size of plus 800 trades.

His style works in any environment, bearish/bullish, trending, range bound.  In quick moving markets:  Mark's communication is second to none. His patience  and discipline to wait for high probability trades is impressive.   

I would recommend this svc to anyone trading ES, with the popularity of prop firms like Apex who have strict rules like intraday drawdown, Mark's system fits perfectly.  live trading or prop firm trading this is the place to be.  

-Victor