Market Commentary for Monday, September 8, 2025, by Peter Cook
We are levitating again on a very thin bid into chip stocks from the Retail Brigade. Breadth is bad, only about a quarter of stocks are going up at the moment.
Argentina #ARGT had an election, and markets are tumbling over there, off 10%. That setup actually looked pretty good for a long - very surprising to see that outcome. Conservatives are getting bounced because they went too fast too furious with the austerity and still kept all the corruption people dislike. Possibly a pre-cursor to US mid-term elections? We'll have to see. Don't forget Musk was wielding a chain saw just a few months ago just like Milei was in Argentina. The irony of both of them now going into the "Wood Chipper" has me chuckling just a little bit.
#Bonds are rallying another 1% and hitting some long-term resistance levels in the form of a falling Yearly VWAP at 89.66 on #TLT. Same with Mortgage REITS like #MORT - they are overbought here. Nice moves on all that stuff, but it's getting to be time to take profit.
I'm seeing very concerning things with Vix right now, it's setup for a big spike. It is not a terrible time if #VIX calls are your thing to hedge. Retail interest in stocks and momentum trading is approaching 2021 top levels, possibly even more in the case of some of the IBD 50 stocks. That never ends well.
We are gapping into 580 on QQQ (the Call Wall that won't move up). That's usually bearish. We got a big slam down when we did it on Friday. Could be same today.
My metrics say it could go either way today (either really good or really bad) so I usually skip it if I have a chance it could be really bad.
Levels:
All the best;
Peter Cook
#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
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