Market Commentary for Friday, September 26, 2025, by Peter Cook
We are running up this morning based on "good" inflation data. You can judge for yourself, but it does look like the data look fishy to me. Consumption numbers running at 2x the rate of inflation looks odd.
If it's real, prices should come up to meet that insatiable demand.
Prior PCE revised down too. I'm sure everyone can understand why after the last couple weeks of drama with the BLS.
Meanwhile, you can look at #COST and see all you need to know about consumption. It's down after laying another egg during earnings. Same store sales tepid.
#KMX was down almost 25% yesterday with the same kind of thing - really difficult time for used cars now that the Tariff induced front running is done.
#LEN reported same with home sales. Not only that but builder stocks ran up way too much in anticipation of rate cuts. Now the hangover is here.
I'm watching the stocks, not the macro data - macro data just not useful anymore. #INFL (ETF that tracks stocks that do best with inflation) is up 0.55% this morning so far too. If inflation is not a concern, then why do the inflation stocks keep going up?
Gamma Ratios are very bullish today, I killed it yesterday and pulled almost 70 ES handles, which is pretty nuts for me. I'm going to press longs again today. Could be a trend up day at least until we get into 661 on SPY.
Levels:
All the best;
Peter Cook
#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
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This email went out to Members at 0954 ET on Sept 26th.
