Market Commentary for Thursday, September 4, 2025, by Peter Cook
We got a nice little 30-minute rally at the end of the day, otherwise yesterday didn't look so hot. I sat there for almost 2 hours waiting on the thing to move in the early afternoon and gave up right before it went up (I felt like a dummy, but it wore me out).
Two stocks accounted for most of the rise, both on news that they wouldn't get broken up with anti-trust stuff. The ruling was a joke if you read it like I did. The market didn't even expect the judge to cave like he did and the market is pretty good at pricing that kind of thing in.
But we don't trade the market we want, we trade the market we got. And this one has GOOG up at levels where I wouldn't touch it. I said yesterday it was a short and it's down 1.3% this morning.
Jobs data is splashed all over CNBC Comedy Central Show. ADP data is showing very steep weakening of the labor market, but I don't care as much about that.
The one I cared about this morning is the Challenger Jobs Cuts report and that thing is showing we are about to see a Tsunami of layoffs. Intentions are up 38% y/y now, which is up last month from just 13% y/y. That is inflecting like a Hockey stick now.
Not only that but the ADP report showed 4.4% wage inflation for job stayers and a whopping 7.1% wage increases for people hopping jobs. If you have a job and switch you are "in" and pass the scrutiny, but if you've lost your job, you are considered "out", and you aren't getting hired. Hiring intentions in August are just 1,494, down 53.3 percent from 3,200 in July and down 75.5 percent form 6,101 in August 2024. Awful.
The definition of Stagflation.
My original plan going into the year was to look for the manufacturing and industrial production to roll over in August (it has along with the jobs market) and for that to eventually result in a recession in the Spring of 2026 and a large-scale spike in inflation sometimes between now and the Spring of next year. A secular Bear market should come as a result sometime between. So far, it looks like it's lining up well. The only tricky thing will be when the AI Bubble finally pops. #NVDA earnings definitely showed the very first signs of weakening demand in spots.
I do have top signals on the weeklies for the #MAGS ETF (#MAG 7). Last seen in December right before the Bear Market and before that in July 2024 before a big correction started.
That doesn't mean we stop trading or get all bear-ed up, it just means we get ready to get out and have a plan, that's all. We'll do well shorting the market when the time comes and in the mean-time, we pick our spots and take longs with measured risk. Despite what we see today, we need to realize it takes time for the rest of the world to see what we see.
My metrics say today is poor for day trading, so I'm skipping it in favor of some Rest and Relaxation.
Levels:
All the best;
Peter Cook
#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp
This email went out to Members at 1009 ET on Sept 4th
