Morning Commentary for Friday, August 15, 2025 by Peter Cook
We got some retail sales today, they were pretty good actually, but weak without cars. I see that anecdotally down here. Lots of people are trading in cars and buying EVs now that the tax credit is expiring. Should be a good quarter for #TSLA. People asked me why we didn't sell harder on the #PPI news yesterday and the answer is that the market was pretty hedged and it's close to Op-Ex. The real move is going to come after this afternoon and into Monday.
#PPI is very bad, it will flow to #CPI and it's getting worse because the tariff rates are only about 9% now, headed up to 15% as the Tariffs finally get implemented. All of it will be getting worse not better and it's showing up all over the place in the data.
We did get Consumer Sentiment this morning and it was not good at 58.6 (a big "miss"). People are back to being worried about Tariffs again. Year ahead inflation expectations surged from 4.5% to 4.9%.
We got import export prices this morning showing a very large increase of 0.4% m/m in imports. That's inflation from #Tariffs again showing up in another report. That's not good.
While we did see the puts at 642 give us support yesterday and some of them are still left. So, 642 on #SPY is still support, but it's not large support. Under 642 on #SPY and we can sell pretty quickly.
I'm still leaning hard on that as support and will press longs today. If we go under 642 on #SPY, I will not take long trades. It's pretty simple today.
Levels:
All the best;
Peter Cook
NQ Chatroom Moderator (Go2Mtg)
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
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