Friday, June 17, 2016
Friday, June 17, 2016 #PreMarket Comments by
Good morning. After the reversal in U.S. equities yesterday, global markets saw moderate follow through overnight. However, the ESU6 traded up to 2075 area and was once again resisted there, leading to a retracement of the sessions gains and trade below 2070.
Today is June expiration, which has very good stats; but this week has not been kind to bullish stats. With the lack of buy momentum overnight, I expect for some two-sided tape today as the expiration as well as continued Brexit balancing will create a mixed environment. Bears controlled last week’s close and this week’s open, it will be interesting to see who may control this week’s close.
Friday is the most difficult day of the week to counter-trend trade the intraday momentum (based on my studies). Therefore, I will keep an eye on the 8:30 CST opening print and look for buys above and sells below, with the exception of possibly looking for a first hour low to buy.
Prices to watch lower will be 2064 (*) followed by 2061 (**); below there, I believe the door opens for a revisit of yesterday’s low, and wouldn’t consider a buy until the 2050 (**) area. To the upside, the 2071-2072 (*) area could offer initial resistance followed by the pivotal 2075 (***) price. The line in the sand to sell rallies or buy a breakout seems to be that 2075, a break above; and I would expect for some buy stops leading up to 2080 (**) and possibly 2089 (***).
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thursday, June 16, 2016
Thursday, June 16, 2016 Morning #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader
Good morning. The equity indexes have confirmed the “sell the rallies” personality this week and buyers failed again yesterday to gain traction leading the ESU6 into a very weak close. Meanwhile, that weakness saw follow through overnight as the major global indices maintained a risk off trade.
For me, it’s unproductive to preplan to buy any dip (not ruling out circumstances intraday) and lower price levels could be considered more as points of interest or targets rather than outright support projections.
Downside prices are 2052 (*) globex low, 2048 (*), 2043 (**) Weekly S3, and 2039 (**) area. To the upside 2057 (*), 2063(**), 2069 (*) and 2072 (***)
While I am not predetermined to buy a pullback, after five lower sessions, two remaining days this week, and nearly 70 handles from this contracts high last week, my experience tells me to keep an open mind with this price action. IF this selling is due to event risks (Brexit) THEN at some point it will be priced in, and once everyone has flattened or shorted, it’s possible to see upside price action, especially as the week closes tomorrow.
All the best;
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
#NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 15, 2016 by @mocktrade
Not much change in my
NFLX thoughts and bias as the past week or so ahead of the FOMC rate
decision; while/if holding above 92.00
buyers will have odds in their favor to head towards the top of the current
wedge and if so 99.35 then 101s become potential targets.
However to me if it was not for the potential of a favorable FOMC
rate decision reaction the NFLX auction
is favoring a breach below 92.00 to
at least the 89s area, and if this
bearish scenario plays out I would then like to see NFLX breach out of the current wedge and then push well below 87s in the coming days for the Put side
of a new Strangle which was engaged in on Thursday (June 8th) to
really benefit. If not I will expect there to be better odds for a move above 101s in the coming days or weeks.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC
#PCLN Bias & Levels Update for Wednsday June 15, 2016 by @mocktrade
For PCLN I was originally in hope for a follow through move above 1371 to occur before FOMC rate decision in order to start scaling out of the Call side of a current Strangle, which was engaged when PCLN was consolidating between 1302 and 1250.
Obviously my original plan was negated once PCLN breached below weekly value support at 1335s and especially once PCLN breached back below 1325. Now it’s back to waiting on the rate
decision reaction before expecting any type of move with legs and energy.
In the coming days or weeks I will be looking for a PCLN move either
above 1385 or below 1228 otherwise I will have to scratch
the current Strangle and exchange it for a longer expiration.
For a bullish bias I would like to see PCLN hold above 1275s-1270s
zone after FOMC rate decision and then start making its way back above 1325, and then once/if above 1342s buyers should remain in control for
a move to at/near and above 1385.
If PCLN fails to
hold above 1270 odds will definitely
be in favor for a move to 1253s-1250s
zone before 1230s-1228s zone.
Once/if below 1228s PCLN will then
have potential for a breach below 1200.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC
Wednesday, June 15, 2016 Morning Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader
Good morning. The ESU6 bid higher overnight which is typical after three days of (relatively) noticeable selling and typical going into FOMC day two. It feels like the market has reached a line in the sand area and bulls need to hold 2050 or otherwise give up their control from a more macro point of view.
Note: I attached three charts showing equity performance based on different factors that are current. All three of these suggest a bullish bias and this did not include June Quad Witch stats which are also bullish. I have noticed that when various analogs and statistics scream a consistent direction and that direction fails, the results can be severe. Meaning that if bulls drop the ball on this one, they may not get it back for a while.
The ESU6 is only up a modest four handles at the moment and it seems that if buyers cannot take charge at the open then it will be another sell rallies kind of day, and perhaps even, sell each new low. After bears have pushed the benchmark futures lower nearly 65 handles in a week’s time, bull ought to be able to mount a 20 handle rally at this, and this has yet to happen.
Levels I will be watching to the upside are 2073-2075 (**) area that bulls need to take early. Above that 2081 (*) and 2088 (**) come into play as resistance. To the downside, 2067 (**), 2063 (*) and 2055 (**) come in as support followed by 2048 (**)
It’s FOMC Day of course with the announcement coming at 1:00 om CST. While the probabilities of a June hike are virtually non existent the market will be paying close attention to the language used in the statement.
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
Tuesday, June 14, 2016 S&P 500 Futures #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader
Good morning. Brexit concerns seem to be finally entering the market with less than ten days until the vote and polls seeming to indicate the British population favoring a withdraw. Yesterday, the ESU6 broke and closed below the 2074 level which now has me leaning toward selling rallies.
Overnight, the ESU did hold the VWAP for this year at 2060 but continued to make its lower highs. Positive stats for June expiration week as well the historic June calendar showing a tendency to find a low into the midmonth rebalance will keep me cautious as the two day Fed Meeting begins today. I will again be trading with smaller size and hopefully an open mind.
At this point, the move to risk off ahead of the vote has been very orderly, nothing that suggests panic.
Levels to watch on the downside are the globex low at 2060 (*) followed by 2057 (**) then 2049 (***). To the upside, first resistance is 2067 (*) then 2072 (*) and 2079 (**) near yesterday’s VPOC.
Monday, June 13, 2016
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