Friday, July 10, 2015
Final #VX Futures Spread for Friday, July 10, 2015
Next Friday, we will roll to AUG-DEC Spread as JUL VIX Futures will expire on the following Wednesday, 22nd.
#FXI Update & Levels for Friday, July 10, 2015
Yesterday I was in hope #FXI
would reach 43.20-43.75 zone to
engage in a new swing Short which I
would have done so with a tight stop because if above 43.75 I see potential to 45.05-45.55
zone which would be an even better/more ideal Short entry.
#FXI is close
to the 43.20-43.75 zone but being a
Friday with potential of Greece and/or Chine weekend headline risk I will hold
off until next week before engaging in a #FXI
trade.
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Mid-day Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 10, 2015
Swing bias for CLQ5 is still neutral between 54s-51s and even more so while below 53.55; however if 51 is not breached soon I will begin to favor a swing Long to 54.70-55.10 zone then 56s once/if above 55.10.
CLQ5 does have some room for lower but downside could be limited to 48.50-47.75 zone if 51 is breached before a meaningful bounce which means swing trades on the Long side from here will likely have higher profit potential than Shorts or my interest in Shorts will not come until at or above 54s.
Ethan Premock
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thursday, July 9, 2015
Mid-year #AAPL bias July 9th 2015
For a couple of days now I have been tweeting (@mocktrade) a
potential bearish bias for #AAPL while below the weekly resistance at 125.25 and especially while holding
below center on the 60min Sigma & CI
indicator.
Also over the past several months the #AAPL and ESU5/SPX/SPY charts
have remained very similar while holding within a range during the entire first
half of 2015, which I believe was due to the hope that #AAPL’s iWatch would be
the next catalyst to send #AAPL stock to its next leg higher. If so #AAPL would then help lead indexes to break out higher with volume after failing
to find new buyers post the Q1 earnings season along with post many failed
index breakout attempts after Janet Yellen’s well timed 360 back to “data
dependent” just before the 126k NFP report during the first week of April 2015.
With dovish Fed language and more importantly Q1 earnings
unable to attract new buyers to achieve more new market all-time highs (ATHs) #AAPL
(the biggest market leader) is now a must to have blowout iWatch sales for
there to be potential to lead US indexes back to making new highs and higher.
My concern: I love AAPL the company but I am not a fan of the
iwatch or at least not yet due to the fact that the iWatch needs to be linked
to a phone. When the iwatch can be a phone on its own and can one day unlock
and start your car and/or also fully control the functions of a house (lights,
alarm, etc) my bias will definitely change; until then and for now I am more in
the belief that #AAPL shareholders are the primary buyers of the iWatch and are trying
to promote it by tweeting about it on twitter in hope of helping their Long
position.
I got more concerned about the iWatch when seeing only one
person at the iWatch table while all other tables were surrounded by people.
There is chance #AAPL could grind higher as Q2 earnings approach but unless iwatch sales are blowout (or even a big disappointment) there will
be extremely high odds #AAPL could breach below 120s then breach below 118/117
which will increase the chances of #AAPL leading the overall market lower along
with all the uncertainty in Greece and the uncertainty in the China stock
market.
I will have a close eye on #AAPL over the next several weeks to
help confirm and/or give clues for a macro bias for the overall market during the next quarter and
maybe for the entire 2nd half of the year.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Potential FXI targets & bias for Thursday, July 9, 2015
FXI still has
a ways to go before thinking all is saved for a full reversal which likely
means oversold rallies will be Shorting
opportunities.
Right now FXI is back
above 40.60 and until back below 40.60 there will be potential for more upside to reach 43.15-43.75
zone which is a definite target to scale into new swing Short with a stop just above that zone;
or a consideration to engage Short
will also be if back and holding below 40.60
sometime after the first hour of trading today.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 9, 2015
Yesterday the low 51s was
mentioned as a potential support area for CLQ5
and while above a bias will be more on the neutral side while also holding
below 54s.
Now that CLQ5
closed above & now trading well above 51s
odds favor potential bullish follow through as long as remaining above 52.25-51.45 zone, and while above 51.45 upside targets are at 53.90s then 54.70-55.10 zone.
Once/if upper targets are reached there will still be potential
to Short lower high formations anywhere below 56.05-57.30 zone.
Ethan Premock
Futures
& Options Strategist
Hamzei
Analytics, LLC
Wednesday, July 8, 2015
#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 8, 2015
Bias for CLQ5 is
now Neutral after reaching the 51s target which now has a first support at 51.15. While above 51.15 the neutral bias
will remain until at least pushing and holding above 54.45. If above 54.45
there is still a good amount of resistance at the 56.05 to 57.30 zone
before considering a macro bullish bias.
If 54.45 contains CLQ5 upside (or while holding below 53.10) there is still potential for
lower and if so 49s then 47s will become the next potential
targets.
Ethan Premock
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, July 7, 2015
#ES_F Update & Levels for Tuesday, July 7, 2015
As of now the thin profile and low volume area (LVA) above 2078s is containing ESU5 upside which means there is now very
good chance ESU5 is heading to the
key 2026s-2020s zone while holding below
2057s/58s this week and definitely
while/if holding below 2046s today.
Only a move/hold/close above 2058s will negate lower to 2026s/25s
and lower with ease.
Ethan Premock
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 7, 2015
CLQ5 is
getting extremely close to the 51s
target and while below 53.75 or
below 54.40-54.70 zone as line in
sand (LIS) 51s will likely get
reached sometime today.
If above 54.70
there is still a good amount of resistance from 56.40 to 57.30 to get
through before considering a macro bullish bias. If below 51 today/this week 49s
will then become the next lower target.
Ethan Premock
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Monday, July 6, 2015
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