Friday, August 7, 2015
Thursday, August 6, 2015
Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, August 6, 2015
As bullish as the market felt yesterday after the pre-market
ramp following the lite ADP report indexes remain in a lower high formation
especially TF/IWM. Earnings were supposed
to be the catalyst sending the S&P500 back to making new ATHs but so far
the price action in most stocks after reporting earnings has been poor even
after an initial earnings rally/pop that fades like in NFLX
GOOGL FB & AMZN while
almost all other stocks are not getting any type of an earnings rally.
At this point and now that most earnings guidance and most earning reports are not justifying higher stock prices the market is no doubt in some sort of hope that
economic data does not improve (pre-market ramp post ADP confirms) so that the
Fed remains dovish about a rate hike in the near future in order to keep the
easy money in stocks flowing for a fourth straight year in a row. Reminds me of when household incomes did not support the mortgages on
stated income loans back in 2004-2008; reality always catches up at some
point!!
For ESU5 I continue
to watch the 2104s-2108s zone to
contain upside for the lower high formation to remain. If so ESU5 must then first get below 2081s-2077s zone then get below 2070 for definite confirmation that the
lower high formation is likely to continue today and possibly post NFP
tomorrow.
For IWM 125 is
still key to remain in the lower high formation and for NQU5 the lower high thresholds for today are at 4618 and 4636.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Wednesday, August 5, 2015
Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, August 5, 2015
CLU5 mainly
traded sideways yesterday and with index futures already having a big move in
the overnight/premarket session CLU5
may be the better one to trade today over equity indexes; unless trapped index Longs use this morning's rally to sell. If CLU5 does have good movement today I will expect
either an upside move (with legs) above yesterday’s first resistance at 46.65 or a move (with legs) below today’s
first support at 45.70.
If above 46.65 the
first upside target is at 47.30-47.40
zone or if below 45.70 the first lower target is at 45.00 then 44s.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, August 4, 2015
CLU5 is getting
dangerously close to the 44s target mentioned
last week and as long as holding below 46.50-46.65
zone there will be high odds of continuing lower to 44s-42s zone especially once/if below 45.50. If below 45.50
the first lower target that is on the radar is at 44.70-44.60 zone.
If above 46.65 the
next resistance is at 47.15-47.30
zone.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, August 4, 2015
So far the index overnight
(OVN) session is still keeping the macro lower high
formation intact that was mentioned yesterday which did also play a big role in
my Short bias in ESU5 yesterday as well, along with
confirmation from bearish divergences in
AAPL, Oil/CLU5, and financials. However and once again the
bulls found a way to defend an ESU5 bearish
close at 2081s which forced Shorts to cover into the closing bell.
If below value/-2084 today I will expect a definite retest of 2081s
and if holding again today the bulls could or may avoid further downside for
the rest of the week (??) but as long as below 2097s/98s and definitely if holding below 2094s/95s the lower high formation will likely continue lower to
today’s first lower target at 2078s/77s
then 2071s/70s.
For IWM
the first threshold which will need to hold is 123.30 then 124.80 in
order to stay in the lower high formation today. For NQU5 the lower high thresholds are at 4614s/15s and then 4645s/46s.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
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