Market Commentary for Monday, October 6, 2025, by Peter Cook
We are gapping up bigly here - we have news that Open AI is taking a stake in #AMD. At this point, it's getting pretty stupid. The amount of revenue required to justify this amount of wasteful spending on chips and datacenters is simply not going to print. It's definitely worse by orders of magnitude than the Internet was back in the late 1990s. These folks are spending $30 billion a month and taking in about $1 billion a month. Not only that, it is not like this stuff is like the Railroads back in the 1800s - that was steel and wood that lasted decades. A datacenter is poof, gone and obsolete in just a few years.
People forget, but back when the Dot-Com bubble popped, we saw this kind of thing where companies started buying other adjacent companies. Lucent was one of the worst - they did like 25 billion in acquisitions on the way up to the top. Same stuff happening now.
The ES futures gapped up about 4 points on Sunday, and they have not filled the gap. Typically, we have a 90% chance to fill gaps up on the Futures the same day.
Odds change depending on the circumstances and I'll review all that in the Chat this morning with subscribers.
0DTE Options show panic - lots of hedging into the weekend due to "Shutdown" or "Gaza" or whatever it was. None of it printed and all we got we more stupid from the AI bunch, so short covering is again the story. The 0DTE Setup is very bullish today and I'll run those numbers (average gains) in the chat as well.
No economic data to speak of, but the Shutdown odds keep climbing. Polymarket has it at a 70+% chance it lasts through mid-month. Trump sent a minion out to say if he didn't feel like there was progress, they'd be laying people off - whatever that means. For what it's worth, the Ds said no one picked up the phone to call this weekend from the other side. I'd say it's stalled, both sides dug in.
Depending on what poll you look at most people blame Trump, but it's not like a landslide and he has solid support from his base still (which is all he really cares about). Will be looking to see how this develops once the consequences start rolling in - if he REALLY wanted to fire a bunch of people, I think he would have done it already. Kind of seems like he's waffling to me.
Levels:
All the best;
Peter Cook
#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
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This email went out to Members at 0841 ET on October 6th
