Friday, June 10, 2016
Friday, June 10, 2016 S&P 500 Futures #PreMarket Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader
Another weak session overseas caught up with the S&P as the ESU6 pushed to the 2091 area from Monday afternoon’s low. Today, there will still be considerable roll volume and a light economic calendar, and as been the recent case, the globex range will likely be broader than the RTH range.
For me, Friday’s are the least engaging day of the week, my statistics also show it as the most difficult day to counter trend trade intraday.
Therefore, I will be watching the 8:30 opening print and lean toward buying intraday dips above the open, and selling rallies below the open. The one exception could be if the contract opens weaker, I will look for a first hour low to buy.
Upside levels are the 2092-2094 (*) range where price consolidated late this morning followed by the 2098-2100 (***) area offers very heavy resistance, first touch of this area creates a good opportunity to short. Above that 2106 (**) would likely find price exhausted and offer solid resistance.
To the downside, 2087 (*) is first area of support followed by 2084 (*) and last Friday’s post NFP low of 2074 (**). If price managed to reach that 2074 area, it would likely show some exhaustion and dip buyers would pile in infront of next week expiration week which is statistically bullish.
Thursday, June 9, 2016
#NFLX Bias & Levels for a New Strangle on Thursday June 9, 2016 by @mocktrade
Current bias for
NFLX is bearish and if not for the June rate hike decision next week I would be looking
for a swing Short entry at/near 99.85-100.65 zone which includes weekly value resistance;
until back in weekly value/+100.65 odds are in favor for NFLX heading to
94.25 and possibly 93.05-92.35 zone as well.
Normally trading/holding below weekly value is a no brainier for me to look for Short trade entries but with the June rate decision next week (which will be an absolute game changer for both sides) I am forced to engage in a Strangle strategy rather than a naked Short trade.
As long as NFLX holds within the 98.60-96.80 range today/tomorrow I will most likely engage in a new NFLX Strangle with a September expiration; very possible for me to do so by day’s end today (June 9th). If so I will then be looking for a breach above 101s/102s or a breach below 90s/89s following the June FOMC rate decision.
Ethan PremockFutures & Options
Strategist Hamzei Anlytics, LLC
#AAPL Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 9, 2016 by @mocktrade
AAPL is still/currently
holding above the top of the previous consolidation range (+98.25) which was the range where I
engaged in a new January 2017 Strangle ahead of the June FOMC rate decision;
however AAPL is still trading within
weekly value containment while below
100.50 and also holding within weekly value with very little energy. This
tells me AAPL is likely either on
hold until rate decision and/or needing a favorable FOMC rate decision as the
catalyst for higher or to have better odds to finally get above and stay above 100s.
If staying above the current uptrend line with 97.70 as the line in sand (LIS) I do
see potential for AAPL to get above weekly value/+100.50 and if so 101.80 becomes a potential upside target
ahead of the June FOMC rate decision, but in order for AAPL to have more of a macro bullish bias AAPL will at least need a breach and daily close above the low
volume area (LVA) at 102s-104s zone following the June FOMC rate decision.
Ethan Premock
Futures
& Options Strategist Hamzei
Anlytics, LLC
Wednesday, June 9, 2016 S&P 500 Futures #PreMarket Comments by @FairValueTrader
Note: I am still trading the Jun mini (ESM6) and my levels will reflect accordingly.
After two days of sub 10 handle RTH ranges today continues the low globex volume, light economic calendar as the index futures roll takes place. I’m not expecting much range today but some price deteriation would not seem out of place as buyers have been unable to extend the range higher.
The floor at this time seems to be in the 2106.50 (**) area with this mornings low at 2108.50. I think this area is worth a look on first touch in today’s regular session but I expect a second touch to lead to a breakdown to 2099.50 (*) and then to 2094.50 (***) where I would expect to see significant support today.
Looking to the upside, there is a great deal of chop from 2114.00 to 2118.00 this week and I would expect early morning gains to be limited to that range. Bears needs to ensure a lower high in that area while bulls need for this mornings globex low to remain a higher low.
For me, I am leaning to looking to sell the 2114.00 – 2118.00 area on first touch and at the moment lean more to selling an opening range below 2110.00 or buying above 2110.00.
Wednesday, June 8, 2016
#PCLN Thoughts & Levels for June 8, 2016 by @MockTrade
Currently I am holding a PCLN Strangle with an August expiration which was engaged when PCLN was balanced and consolidating
between 1250 & 1302. Once PCLN breached above 1302
my bias turned from neutral to bullish; however in order for the Call side of
the August expiration Strangle to push deep into profit PCLN now needs to breach and hold above 1374s/75s.
PCLN is now 20 points-ish below yesterday’s (Tuesday
June 7th) high of day (HOD) and is also currently trading below
yesterday’s value area (VA) as well while below 1358s. Trading below value
is not a good sign for a Long bias but until first below 1340 with 1325s-1320s zone
as line in sand (LIS) I will assume the pull-back from yesterday’s HOD is just
some profit taking following the +137
point upside move from the 1236s area
back in mid/late May.
If PCLN was still
holding within the previous balance area between 1250 & 1302 ahead of
the June rate decision it would not matter to me which way PCLN traded post rate decision in
regards to the current August Strangle, but now that PCLN is well above the previous balance area/+1302 it is definitely more ideal for PCLN to get above 1375s
before FOMC rate decision next week. If so I will then have sights on 1393s-1402s zone then 1422s-1425s zone to consider scaling
and/or exiting the entire August expiration PCLN Strangle.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC
Wednesday, June 8, 2016 S&P 500 Futures #PreMarket Comments by @FairValueTrader
Overnight, the ESM6 traded to yesterday’s globex low of 2106.60, bouncing there and maintaining a bid during a weak European session, then reaching a 2114.50 high, just 3.5 handles from Tuesday’s high. If you caught the afternoon video, I suggested that as long as that level held, I considered yesterday afternoon’s selling just “noise,” as buying dried up at a new contract high on a low volume day.
Globex volume is just over 120K into 7:00 am CST while today’s calendar is still relatively light. Heading into the cash open, I maintain my bias for the week. Either look for an early low to buy in the first 90 minutes of the regular session, or buy the open and expect to buy small dips as long as price trades above the 8:30 am CST print. Buy levels to watch are yesterday’s volume POC at 2110.25 (**) and 2106.50 (**). This opens the door to the 2120 target as well as the potential for the weekly R3 at 2128.58.
To the downside, sellers need to push below 2106.50 before I would start to consider selling rallies as a bias. From there, the next levels would be a 2099.50 (*) and then the 2094.50 (***), which I see as significant support of any selling today.
Again, I am not predispositioned to look for fade levels higher, as I don’t intend to fight this higher price action unless I see something at the moment intraday.
Note: Today, I will begin placing asterisks (*) beside levels to designate the intensity of my interest in that price, ranging from one to three asterisks, with one indicating the mildest and three denoting the strongest interest.
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, June 7, 2016
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