GM #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL

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Temp is 81F, expected range is 91 to 76

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only data point today was Mortgage Apps

came in a tad soft

Market Commentary for Tuesday, August 26, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are kind of treading water into #NVDA earnings Wednesday after the bell.  Implied move is like 6% or so, which isn't too bad for that stock.  I notice some heavy hedging and retail looks to be a little nervous about whether or not Jenson can deliver the goods (AGAIN).  I have no real edge trading earnings until they actually come out.  The one tendency that does exist for #NVDA is to actually sell from the Open to the Close on the next morning after the afternoon announcement, so there is that.  0DTE Puts might print on the morning after. 

Durable Goods was pretty good here this morning.  We like to see that, and it would be nice to see some decent economic data for a change. 

The Dallas Fed did their survey yesterday morning and it was great.  They asked businesses some nice questions on Tariff implementation and when they were going to raise prices. Here is the kind of summary:

• Prices paid continues to rise, indicating continued, persistent price #Inflation for businesses because of the #Tariffs.  It increased 2 more points this time around. 
• Prices received continues to rise, indicating businesses are continuing to pass through the costs of #Tariffs.  This increased 4 points (double what Prices Paid did).  Businesses are passing more Tariff costs onto the consumer. 
• 71.6% of businesses said they were seeing negative impacts due to the #Tariffs, that's a lot.
• 63.6% of businesses say they have passed the costs onto customers and ~62% of them say they will pass either the entire cost or most of the cost of the #Tariff onto their customers.  
• 78.6% of businesses say they don't expect any more funny business with #Tariffs for the rest of the year, the storm has passed they say.

This is very useful information because if Tariff stuff becomes a thing again, we'll see businesses surprised (they think it's done) and we could see real negative reactions in the market. 

I'm not going to Day Trade much today, my metrics say it's not a good day to trade.  

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

GM @ES_F #NQ_F Traders

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 we have two econ data points today and both are crucial:

Durable Goods is out and came in slightly better than expected,

with ex-auto showing a lot better

next one is Consumer Confidence, and it is due at 1000 ET

HAPI CI CI Diff Prop Indicator for Ninja Trader Platform

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Bi-Monthly #Stock #Market #Timing Review of #ES_F #NQ_F #SPX #NDX #SPY for Monday, August 25, 2025

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GM #ES_F #NQ_F Traders

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GM @ES_F #NQ_F Traders

should be a quiet day, with very slight biased to the downside to release some upward pressure we saw on Friday #Fed #JacksonHole

we have one data point at 1000 ET

Market Commentary for Monday, August 25, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We look to be having a little hangover from all the Jackson Hole buying. Bitcoin had a really rough weekend. The bitcoin futures are down almost 5%.  The worst part about it was that Ethereum was still catching a bid from the late coming, worst of the worst retail players.  Once the futures opened on Sunday, the Arbitrage people took care of that spread and whomped poor Ethereum again. I have been on Major Top watch for Crypto for the last week to week and a half. 

It's not really common to see ES holding up like this when Bitcoin is down this much.  The last couple times we gapped the ES futures up while the Bitcoin futures gapped down 2%, we topped the last two bull markets.  That's not good.  

We should be down around 567-568 on QQQ by now, so I'm kind of looking for that kind of reaction today at some point.  I'll look for longs around the Purple VWMA (Monthly VWAP) and Yellow VWMA (Weekly VWAP) on QQQ.  

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

Market Commentary for Friday, August 22, 2025, by Peter Cook

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It is a pseudo-FOMC day here and we are seeing heavy, heavy hedging right now.  

The Put to Call Gamma ratios are in very bullish territory.  People have TONS of puts under 635 on #SPY.  That means two things - typically, it means 635 will be heavy support.  But under 635 it will become gasoline on a fire if we go lower.  

We saw the Journal release a trial balloon article last night from Nick Timiros and it was timed right for the Asia open to see what kind of market reaction they'd get.  It was not good, Asia opened down a lot and continued to sell until Europe opened.  I'm a little wary about what is going to happen here when Powell talks.  Remember, normally it's a huge sell when he talks.  

Vix CoT report is showing a very, very bearish setup intermediate term.  We are seeing people short Vix to a very, very high level here.  This has not happened since we crash in April and again in December when Trump range the NYSE Bell at the market top.  

I'm not trading this today, just waiting to see what will happen. Good luck if you are trying to trade this. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

Market Commentary for Thursday, August 21, 2025, by Peter Cook

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Still risk-off this morning but we are opening and quickly testing around 635 on SPY and I like that area for longs.  If we dump under it, we'll get a quick long 30-minute bar down into 560 possibly for QQQ, that's going to be bumpy and I wouldn't recommend trying to bottom pick until maybe we tag a speedbump at SYP 633.51.  

Upside today, which I think is totally doable is the 0 Gamma lines at 641 on SPY and 569 on QQQ.  

Walmart reported #WMT and they said they'd be keeping guidance for the year "despite" tariffs.  They should be raising guidance due to Tariffs because they'll be able to charge more for EVERYTHING, not just the Tariffed stuff.  They have significantly less exposure to Tariffs vs. their rivals like TGT or the DLTR / Dollar Stores.  Market is sniffing this out and stock is down this morning.  We are seeing the price of everything go up now, not just tariffed stuff.  It is a way for companies to try to spread the cost of a giant tariff on one item across other things that people usually buy WITH it (e.g. If a Grill now costs a gazillion dollars more because of all the metal tariffs now, maybe just charge more for the charcoal and accessories that might not be tariffed to try and keep the sticker shock less for the grill).  

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

Market Commentary for Wednesday, August 20, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We have big time risk-off materializing this morning in the Market.  We are hitting major support levels and breaking through them to run stops briefly it seems here.  We might rally soon. 

Vix was very underpriced (spot vs 3 month futures were all out of whack) - not surprised to see Vix expiration this morning finally serve as our catalyst to trap a lot of people in very, very crowded positions.  We are in an environment finally that resembles the April crash.  

This was badly needed.  We have a lot more work to do on the Semis too like AVGO, etc.  

It's a nice spot here to try some longs as are don't usually stay under Put Walls for long.  QQQ is almost at the big blue line at 558 (Monthly Implied lows).  Often nice rallies materialize here. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp