Market Commentary for Thursday, August 21, 2025, by Peter Cook
Still risk-off this morning but we are opening and quickly testing around 635 on SPY and I like that area for longs. If we dump under it, we'll get a quick long 30-minute bar down into 560 possibly for QQQ, that's going to be bumpy and I wouldn't recommend trying to bottom pick until maybe we tag a speedbump at SYP 633.51.
Upside today, which I think is totally doable is the 0 Gamma lines at 641 on SPY and 569 on QQQ.
Walmart reported #WMT and they said they'd be keeping guidance for the year "despite" tariffs. They should be raising guidance due to Tariffs because they'll be able to charge more for EVERYTHING, not just the Tariffed stuff. They have significantly less exposure to Tariffs vs. their rivals like TGT or the DLTR / Dollar Stores. Market is sniffing this out and stock is down this morning. We are seeing the price of everything go up now, not just tariffed stuff. It is a way for companies to try to spread the cost of a giant tariff on one item across other things that people usually buy WITH it (e.g. If a Grill now costs a gazillion dollars more because of all the metal tariffs now, maybe just charge more for the charcoal and accessories that might not be tariffed to try and keep the sticker shock less for the grill).
Levels:
All the best;
Peter Cook
#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
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