Market Commentary for Tuesday, August 26, 2025, by Peter Cook
We are kind of treading water into #NVDA earnings Wednesday after the bell. Implied move is like 6% or so, which isn't too bad for that stock. I notice some heavy hedging and retail looks to be a little nervous about whether or not Jenson can deliver the goods (AGAIN). I have no real edge trading earnings until they actually come out. The one tendency that does exist for #NVDA is to actually sell from the Open to the Close on the next morning after the afternoon announcement, so there is that. 0DTE Puts might print on the morning after.
Durable Goods was pretty good here this morning. We like to see that, and it would be nice to see some decent economic data for a change.
The Dallas Fed did their survey yesterday morning and it was great. They asked businesses some nice questions on Tariff implementation and when they were going to raise prices. Here is the kind of summary:
- Prices paid continues to rise, indicating continued, persistent price #Inflation for businesses because of the #Tariffs. It increased 2 more points this time around.
- Prices received continues to rise, indicating businesses are continuing to pass through the costs of #Tariffs. This increased 4 points (double what Prices Paid did). Businesses are passing more Tariff costs onto the consumer.
- 71.6% of businesses said they were seeing negative impacts due to the #Tariffs, that's a lot.
- 63.6% of businesses say they have passed the costs onto customers and ~62% of them say they will pass either the entire cost or most of the cost of the #Tariff onto their customers.
- 78.6% of businesses say they don't expect any more funny business with #Tariffs for the rest of the year, the storm has passed they say.
This is very useful information because if Tariff stuff becomes a thing again, we'll see businesses surprised (they think it's done) and we could see real negative reactions in the market.
I'm not going to Day Trade much today, my metrics say it's not a good day to trade.
Levels:
All the best;
Peter Cook
#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp
