Market Commentary for August 19, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We got some retail earnings this morning with #HD reporting a poor quarter, but re-affirming guidance for later in the year (that is always dubious).  #HD is gapping up on the "bad" quarter.  You might think that is a good sign, but for #HD that isn't the case.

Out of the last 10 quarters #HD has gapped up, it's been lower 7 times a week later.  Most of them see a -2 to -5% drawdown in the ensuing 5 sessions (after today's close).  Not a terrible one to short on a gap up like this.  

One of the Fed people vying for Powell's job is speaking today.  Michelle Bowman is a Trump appointee and is likely to pound the table for cuts due to jobs data.  I'm sure she'll conspicuously skip over the massive inflation currently raging at the beginning of the supply chains.  

Bonds are holding that Quarterly VWAP level so far this morning (I mentioned it in yesterday's note).  We are seeing builders also lead this morning.  Generally, that's a "rate cut" kind of tone to the market.  Europe is in a good mood and up another 1% too. 

Poor South Korea is suffering from a hangover from all the Bitcoin speculation they've been doing.  Really major top setting up over there.  As a result of that weakness Bitcoin is struggling too.  Really toppy setup on some of the bitcoin stuff too.  I'm not a fan of any of that stuff right now. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

NQ Chatroom Moderator (Go2Mtg)

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

Morning Commentary for Monday, August 18, 2025 by Peter Cook

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We got through Op-Ex this month and we are in the "window of weakness" as Cem Karson likes to say. It's proving its mettle this morning with a mini-liquidation event in crypto land over the weekend. I've been bearish on #Ethereum since the end of the week last week. I have also been called an idiot for doing so (same thing happened a few months ago when #Gold topped and it hasn't gone anywhere for months). Gold acting pretty healthy hanging in here digesting gains for 4 months I have to admit. Sell signals can often just mean a stock goes sideways to "burn off" overbought conditions and gold is doing that right now. The big thing I noticed that changed from Friday to Monday in the Options chain is a large, chunky put spread was added at 640 / 635 on #SPY. This is probably going to be there until September, and it could be interesting if we go down to 640 to test it. I would anticipate support at 635-640 on #SPY as a result and if we go under 635 things will get very bearish very quickly. #Housing data this morning showed builder sentiment remains low. I personally expected this to be a "beat" based on the performance of the stocks over the last few weeks. Often when the stocks go up, the sentiment improves. Not in this case. Builders again are slashing prices about 5% and the use of incentives has reached it's highest levels since the pandemic (66% of builders using buy downs or incentives like that to bring people in the door). It's rough out there and people are simply not budging because everyone believes rates are going down. 

 

Speaking of rates, bonds are resting on a key level with #TLT at 86.29. That is the Quarterly VWAP for the fund and can be a spot to see institutions come in an buy it. There should be a pretty big directional move coming for bonds on the weeklies and the catalyst is clear. Jackson Hole should cause them to move. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

NQ Chatroom Moderator (Go2Mtg)

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

Morning Commentary for Friday, August 15, 2025 by Peter Cook

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We got some retail sales today, they were pretty good actually, but weak without cars.  I see that anecdotally down here.  Lots of people are trading in cars and buying EVs now that the tax credit is expiring.  Should be a good quarter for #TSLA.   People asked me why we didn't sell harder on the #PPI news yesterday and the answer is that the market was pretty hedged and it's close to Op-Ex.  The real move is going to come after this afternoon and into Monday.  

#PPI is very bad, it will flow to #CPI and it's getting worse because the tariff rates are only about 9% now, headed up to 15% as the Tariffs finally get implemented.  All of it will be getting worse not better and it's showing up all over the place in the data. 

We did get Consumer Sentiment this morning and it was not good at 58.6 (a big "miss").  People are back to being worried about Tariffs again.  Year ahead inflation expectations surged from 4.5% to 4.9%.  

We got import export prices this morning showing a very large increase of 0.4% m/m in imports.  That's inflation from #Tariffs again showing up in another report.  That's not good.  

While we did see the puts at 642 give us support yesterday and some of them are still left.  So, 642 on #SPY is still support, but it's not large support.  Under 642 on #SPY and we can sell pretty quickly.

I'm still leaning hard on that as support and will press longs today.  If we go under 642 on #SPY, I will not take long trades.  It's pretty simple today. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

NQ Chatroom Moderator (Go2Mtg)

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

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Sent: Tuesday, August 12, 2025 5:04 PM
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Cc: mark@hamzeianalytics.com <mark@hamzeianalytics.com>
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Morning Commentary for Friday, August 8, 2025 by Peter Cook

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Boring day today.  Looks like the tape is more of the same Vietnam up, Crypto up and gold up.  

TTD reported earnings and it's nuking -33%.  That is a volatile stock, but definitely one that usually ends up going down right before the market tops.  It happened in 2021 and again as Trump got elected. This is something to keep on your radar because it's very sensitive to business conditions and business conditions are not good!

Fed is on vacation, Europe is on Vacation and some of the kiddos are going back to school in the warmer parts of the country, so you know what that means for stocks and it ain't usually good.  The transition from Summer to Fall makes people crabby and they like to sell stocks.  They also get sick usually because the kids go back to school and that doesn't help.  

I'm taking it easy today, I again have signals that day trading to the long side will be difficult today. We are in the process of trying to mount a rally on oversold breadth conditions and it's not going as well as I think it should.  We'll have to see if we thaw out on the breadth side and miss the chance for the rally or not.  If we skip the rally and go sideways it opens the door for a down move next week when CPI comes out. 

Wage data yesterday looked bizarre - we magically have Unit Labor Costs under the Fed's 2% target after a whopper of a month last month at +6.9% (it was revised UPward and bearish too, like every single data point over the last few months).  That is fishy, especially when the Wages components still suggest 4+% raises are happening.  So, if I had to take a read on that to lead into CPI and PPI its that we will see CPI and PPI magically "beat" and I don't know if the market is going to really believe that.  I am going to take a hard look at the data next week and I might retire CPI and PPI as inputs for my monthly models if I think they are being manipulated like the jobs data has gotten over the last decade.  

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

NQ Chatroom Moderator (Go2Mtg)

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

HA Morning Commentary for Friday, July 25, 2025 by Peter Cook

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Japan is down today.  It is looking like they are putting in a top on the weeklies over there.  Not a good setup there or in Europe. 

We got Durable Goods orders, but they are all screwed up because of a big order for Boeing planes last month.  These geniuses that build the models assume whatever happened last month will happen again.  So, when another big order for BA planes doesn't come in, it makes the model look off in the opposite direction as last month.  It's so stupid, but that's how it works. 

There was some data in there that is showing contraction of CORE Capital Goods, which is just another way of saying stuff businesses would use to expand (think like a restaurant that gets a new oven to expand its bakery).  There was a bunch of front running Tariffs that was going on and now it's starting to wear off.  Businesses will be left with all this stuff they won't use once the demand falls off a cliff and prices go up. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

NQ Chatroom Moderator (Go2Mtg)

Hamzei Analytics, LLC