Market Commentary for August 19, 2025, by Peter Cook
We got some retail earnings this morning with #HD reporting a poor quarter, but re-affirming guidance for later in the year (that is always dubious). #HD is gapping up on the "bad" quarter. You might think that is a good sign, but for #HD that isn't the case.
Out of the last 10 quarters #HD has gapped up, it's been lower 7 times a week later. Most of them see a -2 to -5% drawdown in the ensuing 5 sessions (after today's close). Not a terrible one to short on a gap up like this.
One of the Fed people vying for Powell's job is speaking today. Michelle Bowman is a Trump appointee and is likely to pound the table for cuts due to jobs data. I'm sure she'll conspicuously skip over the massive inflation currently raging at the beginning of the supply chains.
Bonds are holding that Quarterly VWAP level so far this morning (I mentioned it in yesterday's note). We are seeing builders also lead this morning. Generally, that's a "rate cut" kind of tone to the market. Europe is in a good mood and up another 1% too.
Poor South Korea is suffering from a hangover from all the Bitcoin speculation they've been doing. Really major top setting up over there. As a result of that weakness Bitcoin is struggling too. Really toppy setup on some of the bitcoin stuff too. I'm not a fan of any of that stuff right now.
Levels:
All the best;
Peter Cook
NQ Chatroom Moderator (Go2Mtg)
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
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