We got through Op-Ex this month and we are in the "window of weakness" as Cem Karson likes to say. It's proving its mettle this morning with a mini-liquidation event in crypto land over the weekend.
I've been bearish on #Ethereum since the end of the week last week. I have also been called an idiot for doing so (same thing happened a few months ago when #Gold topped and it hasn't gone anywhere for months). Gold acting pretty healthy hanging in here digesting gains for 4 months I have to admit. Sell signals can often just mean a stock goes sideways to "burn off" overbought conditions and gold is doing that right now.
The big thing I noticed that changed from Friday to Monday in the Options chain is a large, chunky put spread was added at 640 / 635 on #SPY. This is probably going to be there until September, and it could be interesting if we go down to 640 to test it. I would anticipate support at 635-640 on #SPY as a result and if we go under 635 things will get very bearish very quickly.
#Housing data this morning showed builder sentiment remains low. I personally expected this to be a "beat" based on the performance of the stocks over the last few weeks. Often when the stocks go up, the sentiment improves. Not in this case. Builders again are slashing prices about 5% and the use of incentives has reached it's highest levels since the pandemic (66% of builders using buy downs or incentives like that to bring people in the door). It's rough out there and people are simply not budging because everyone believes rates are going down.
Speaking of rates, bonds are resting on a key level with #TLT at 86.29. That is the Quarterly VWAP for the fund and can be a spot to see institutions come in an buy it. There should be a pretty big directional move coming for bonds on the weeklies and the catalyst is clear. Jackson Hole should cause them to move.
Levels:
