Admiral Tiko: It's all about forward expectations of Treasury Notes & Bonds Rates to Maturity

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Amiral Tiko's Market Timing Chart of the Day = SKEW

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SKEW Chart says the big boys are NOT worried for a drop in equities

is this time different?

Admiral Tiko's Chart of the Day = BTCUSD

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great move up for Bitcoin spot price (#BTCUSD) as CI turned positive and now we have double magenta dots

it's time to lighten up and book your profit

Updated #ES_F Chatroom Performance Chart & Analytics

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Weekly Results is here: https://s3.dualstack.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/media.hamzeianalytics.com/WEEKLY_ES_Chat.jpg

trade by trade data is here https://s3.dualstack.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/media.hamzeianalytics.com/HA%20ES%20Chatroom%20Performance%20Data.pdf

sign-up link is: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_ES_details.asp 

Sign-up for either ES Chatroom and get 2 months FREE of HAPI Expert Level indicators (NinjaTrader or TradeStation) 

Cost is now $399 per month now

As before, you are billed for one week then for 2 weeks then for 30 days thereafter

So you have little at risk as you ascertain if this type algo trading is for you or not

Market Commentary for Monday, October 6, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are gapping up bigly here - we have news that Open AI is taking a stake in #AMD.  At this point, it's getting pretty stupid.  The amount of revenue required to justify this amount of wasteful spending on chips and datacenters is simply not going to print.  It's definitely worse by orders of magnitude than the Internet was back in the late 1990s.  These folks are spending $30 billion a month and taking in about $1 billion a month.  Not only that, it is not like this stuff is like the Railroads back in the 1800s - that was steel and wood that lasted decades.  A datacenter is poof, gone and obsolete in just a few years.  

People forget, but back when the Dot-Com bubble popped, we saw this kind of thing where companies started buying other adjacent companies. Lucent was one of the worst - they did like 25 billion in acquisitions on the way up to the top. Same stuff happening now. 

The ES futures gapped up about 4 points on Sunday, and they have not filled the gap.  Typically, we have a 90% chance to fill gaps up on the Futures the same day.  

Odds change depending on the circumstances and I'll review all that in the Chat this morning with subscribers. 

0DTE Options show panic - lots of hedging into the weekend due to "Shutdown" or "Gaza" or whatever it was.  None of it printed and all we got we more stupid from the AI bunch, so short covering is again the story.  The 0DTE Setup is very bullish today and I'll run those numbers (average gains) in the chat as well.

No economic data to speak of, but the Shutdown odds keep climbing.  Polymarket has it at a 70+% chance it lasts through mid-month.  Trump sent a minion out to say if he didn't feel like there was progress, they'd be laying people off - whatever that means.  For what it's worth, the Ds said no one picked up the phone to call this weekend from the other side.  I'd say it's stalled, both sides dug in.  

Depending on what poll you look at most people blame Trump, but it's not like a landslide and he has solid support from his base still (which is all he really cares about).  Will be looking to see how this develops once the consequences start rolling in - if he REALLY wanted to fire a bunch of people, I think he would have done it already.  Kind of seems like he's waffling to me. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0841 ET on October 6th

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 76F, expected range is 89/75

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data points for today are: NONE

In other news, it's Admiral Tiko's TENTH Birthday and we have a special offer for you, which will be posted here before noon today.

F-20 TigerShark

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Market Commentary for Friday, October 3, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are gapping up slightly here and running over the Call Wall on SPY at 670 and into the 0DTE Implied Highs.  This will cause some selling.  Be careful up here because we have been seeing large, red 30-minute bars when this kind of thing happens. 

Still watching the crash setup from a couple days ago.  Just because it's up a couple days doesn't mean much to be honest.  

I still see Call to Put Gamma very elevated (meaning lots of call buying).  Put Call Ratios got into the bad place too.  Once we squeeze some of these early shorts in select names, we may have found out last buyers.  

Vix continues to remain elevated, likely from continued pressure from the Chaos unfolding in DC. 

We had a fire at a refinery in California - that is something to watch because California gas is special and the oil companies charge them and arm and a leg for it.  Could make gas prices move in California. 

Despite the setup on the dailies looking so ominous, we continue to see day trading work for us - I'm targeting the 0DTE Implied Lows hopefully again today for a long.  It worked almost to the tick yesterday and we caught nice trade off those levels. 

Levels:

All the best;

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 1001 ET on October 3rd

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 76F, expected range is 88/73

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data points for today are: No NFP today due to Gov Shutdown

Market Commentary for Thursday, September 2, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are gapping up into the Call Wall on SPY at 670.  Typically, that results in market makers coming out to slam this down.  The 30-Minute charts are roasted and toasted, so we might need to rest here.

We are still working through a crash setup, but we saw yesterday the market tipped its hand.  I said I wanted to see if shorts got squeezed because they had really loaded the boat up with puts and we got the squeeze yesterday.  You could tell because we went parabolic into the 2:30 PM EST margin call timeslot and after that it kind of stopped going up.  Don't get complacent because the same thing happened on 7/31/24 and the next week it still crashed.

Korea again was up 2%, dragging gold and bitcoin with it.  Some of the chip stocks that have been resting for weeks like #AMD are revving back up this morning and trying to run again.  

The Challenger Jobs Cuts report showed layoff intentions kind of moderating.  That's good to see.  I still expect the DOGE stuff to kind of peak into the Fall (especially if the elections turn out poorly for Rs).  Fed cutting into improving jobs market should create large inflation.

Still ALOT of hedging going on, betting on the market to go down, whatever you want to call it right now. 

I got some comments on the Bank puts yesterday so I figured I would share the chart, so you can see what I see.  I did screw up one thing, instead of 34,000 puts, it was "only" 11,000 on the volume (I looked at the wrong axis on the graph, mea culpa).  It is still ALOT of puts compared to normal.  Red bars/yellow bars = Put Volume, Open Interest and the Green Bars = Calls Volume, Open Interest and the bottom oscillator just measures when there is imbalance in the flow.  

It looks like those 11,000 puts never made it into the OI (so they were probably a 1-day hedge, but I think they were LEAPS way out into 2026 and 2027 if I recall).  None the less, if you look at individual names (MS or JPM) and even the KRE (Regional Bank ETF) there is still heavy put buying going on (and it is making its way into the OI).  So, the broader theme is still a lot of hedging going on.  

And if the timing is off just a little bit - those folks will have to cover their shorts, close their puts with a loss, etc. This is what we have going on right now.  

My number 1 rule for shorting is that I don't do it until the indexes fall under the 200 Day Moving Average.  I find it just doesn't work nearly as well as when we are in a Primary Uptrend. 

The gamma ratios are setting up bearish here after yesterday's bender.  Typically, it takes a day or two to roll over, but I'm expecting weakness sometime in the next week. 

Levels:

All the best;

   

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0907 ET on October 2nd

Admiral Tiko's Market Timing Chart of the Day = HA SP2 Indicator

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Do you see the Bearish Divergence (higher high in #SPX but with lower HA SP2?)

but keeps on going higher

this will NOT end well..... way too much fluff 

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 75F, expected range is 89/74

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data points for today are:

let's hope the Gov Data are NOT delayed like the Construction Spending stats was yesterday

we have enough chaos already, but we can't be flying blind on top of the chaos we already see everywhere....

Market Commentary for Wednesday, October 1, 2025, by Peter Cook

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Asia last night was a bit of a blood bath, but Europe is buying the dip. 

I don't trust this despite the setup being pretty good - I got long signals on the RTY last night but had to close up my trades with small gains after I saw the 0DTE Skew this morning. 

We are in a crash setup - the last 2 times this happened we had -7% drawdowns within a week.  Will it happen again?  I have no idea.  I just know enough to know that I stay far away if this kind of thing starts.  The put buying on the Banks and insurance stocks is obscene right now.  Someone dropped 34,000 Puts on the KBE (Bank ETF) yesterday and that thing rarely trades that kind of volume.  For comparison there were 393 Calls purchased yesterday.  

Typically, that kind of stuff resolves in a short squeeze / bullish.  But this is that rare circumstance where they are paying so much, so fast for puts that it should give you pause.  What do they know?

ADP Employment data is a disaster, and we are back to pricing in 5-6 cuts again.  The local and state government DOGE stuff is hitting hard.  And Argentina is back to performing poorly after Bessent jawboned the market higher for a few days - they are going to need a Bailout and it ain't going to be cheap.  

The line in the sand is 6700 today on ES - under that and it's a no touch until we retest overnight lows, else it's probably fine (for today, not the rest of the week).  

PLEASE BE CAREFUL THIS IS NOT A JOKE.

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0931 ET on October 1st.

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 76F, expected range is 92/74

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data points for today are:

first two both had big misses

HA ORB had a big loss today, due to chaos in the index markets

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Admiral Tiko's Second Stock of the Day is #NVDA

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Target is 191 (+3 sigma daily)

Admiral Tiko's Stock of the Day #MU

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 I luv Micron

Target = 182 (+2 sigma daily)

Market Commentary for Tuesday, September 30, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are struggling overnight, and the tape looks weak.  Bitcoin #BTCUSD backed off the Sunday gap up in the futures (yes, I know Bitcoin trades 24/7).  Typically, a gap up on Sunday like that for Bitcoin is bearish. 

Yesterday's candle is bearish for today, only 44% chance of higher.  

Shutdown stuff is the main thing we'll keep an eye on today.  Kalshi has the odds around 76% now and rising.  Cramer says the shutdown doesn't matter and market should be fine.  That should be concerning for us. 

My metrics suggest today is a poor day for day trading, so I'll skip it. 

We are resting on top of support there around 663 on #SPY,  under that is negative gamma and we could break weekly support.  

Levels:

All the best;

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0827 ET on Sept 30th.

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 79F, expected range is 87/75

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data points for today are:

Admiral Tiko's Stock of the Day is #LRCX

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 Lam Research (Semi Equip Mfg)

beta = 1.82

Market Cap = $166 Bil

Target = 141

HA ORB had a loss today

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Market Commentary for Monday, September 29, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are gapping up and all the silly stuff is running again.

#Gold, gold miners, #FFTY and #NVDA is running.  #INTC is weak though. I have puts on $INTC expecting it to completely fall apart soon. 

We gapped Bitcoin futures up on Sunday - the last 14 times that has happened we are lower than today's close 11 out of 14 times.  It is bearish. 

We get the JPM Collar roll after tomorrow - that will reduce the tendency of this market to be so resilient. 

VXN is up 3% this morning, most of the Vix complex continues to rise - extending correlations with the indexes further and further out (Vix up Indexes Up).  This is a very, very bearish thing to see. 

#QQQ is up almost 1% as I type this and yet only 49% of the #SPX is advancing.  Not good. 

Levels:

 All the best;

 Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 1014 ET on Sept 29th.

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 77F, expected range is 90/77 with 80% chanse of rain 

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data points for today are:

HA ORB had a small loss today

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HA ES Chatroom Performance Chart

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here are the trades:  

https://s3.dualstack.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/media.hamzeianalytics.com/HA%20ES%20Chatroom%20Performance%20Data.pdf

here is the sign-up link:  

https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_ES_details.asp

Market Commentary for Friday, September 26, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are running up this morning based on "good" inflation data.  You can judge for yourself, but it does look like the data look fishy to me.  Consumption numbers running at 2x the rate of inflation looks odd.  

If it's real, prices should come up to meet that insatiable demand.  

Prior PCE revised down too.  I'm sure everyone can understand why after the last couple weeks of drama with the BLS. 

Meanwhile, you can look at #COST and see all you need to know about consumption.  It's down after laying another egg during earnings.  Same store sales tepid.  

#KMX was down almost 25% yesterday with the same kind of thing - really difficult time for used cars now that the Tariff induced front running is done.  

#LEN reported same with home sales.  Not only that but builder stocks ran up way too much in anticipation of rate cuts.  Now the hangover is here. 

I'm watching the stocks, not the macro data - macro data just not useful anymore. #INFL (ETF that tracks stocks that do best with inflation) is up 0.55% this morning so far too.  If inflation is not a concern, then why do the inflation stocks keep going up? 

Gamma Ratios are very bullish today, I killed it yesterday and pulled almost 70 ES handles, which is pretty nuts for me.  I'm going to press longs again today.  Could be a trend up day at least until we get into 661 on SPY. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0954 ET on Sept 26th.

Proactive Market Timing Webinar recorded last night #ES_F #SPX #NQ_F #NDX

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read more: 

https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/Proactive_Market_Timing_Pro_details.asp

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 79F, expected range is 91/76

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data point for today is:

core PCE came in in-line and our markets rallied. YM Futures traded up +240 

and this one is due at 10am ET

Bi-Monthly #Stock #Market #Timing for #SPX #NDX #SPY #QQQ #ES_F #NQ_F

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starts today at 415pm Eastern (2015 Zulu) 

Webinar Registration page

HA ORB had another fantastic day trading #NQ_F Futures

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HA Opening Range Breakout (ORB) for NASDAQ-100 Futures

(trades both MNQ & NQ)

for Thursday, September 25, 2025 

here is the P&L for today:

Trading three NQZ25 contracts: 

Let's do the Math

3 NQ contracts need $3,333 x 3 = $10,000 in margin money

so here in less than 2 hrs it made a tad over 32 %

 

here is the Trades List:

Here is the 90-day Equity Curve:

Here are two ways you can join this wonderful tool:

NO TRADESTATION OR NINJA IS NEEDED

A) Self-directed Trading is done in our NQ Chatroom.... Click here to go thru PayPal: 

https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp

B) Run it thru Striker Securities in Chicago - totally hands off

https://striker.com/searchsystems.php?detail=on&sysID=3705

Market Commentary for Thursday, September 25, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are gapping down.  Why?  No reason really, the market just has too many people shorting volatility and we are struggling with sentiment now.  

With gaps like this, often it takes 30-45 minutes in the first hour to shake everyone out, which looks like what's going on now.  We'll look for a turn back up hopefully if we hit some of these Put Walls.  That would be a nice place to see Market Makers at least attempt a bounce.  

We got inflation data in the form of the PCE measurement in the GDP and it was very hot.  GDP came in as a "beat" which probably seems good, except that inflation (PCE) was 2.5% compared to only 1.6% last quarter.  That is a really big jump.

We will look for signs that the Rate Cuts Odds are going down via the CME FedWatch.  This market is 100% settled on one path only - rate cuts and lower than expected inflation is the normal view of things.  I think that view is being challenged this morning.  

#COST reports earnings and there is heavy, heavy put buying in that name ahead of the print. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to HA Members at 0941 ET on Sept 25th.

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 78F, expected range is 90/76

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Rates are rising as Econ Data came in a lot better than Consensus Estimates:   there goes the Fed rate cuts? who knows !!

these are the good data points for our Economy:

Admiral Tiko's Stock of the Day

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MicroStrategy (MSTR) is on a SELL 

Price Target is 306 (negative 4 sigma)

notice the death cross (50 MA crossing below 200 MA) could be next 

 

PMT Trade #396 is out

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Login to your PMT to see the trade

Admiral Tiko's PMT Chart of the Day = 3-mo. #VIX Futures Spread (#VX_F)

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as 3-month VIX Futures (Long Ocotber25, Short January26) improves (rises), it signifies that broad market is in the SELL mode.

Bottom is very near when the spread prints ZERO....

Market Commentary for Wednesday, September 24, 2025, by Peter Cook

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Looks like we are holding steady overnight, which isn't too surprising given we were sitting on top of weekly VWAPs at the end of the session yesterday.

0DTE Gamma shows a lot of puts at 663 on SPY, heavy support.  If it breaks, we could pull the same kind of move we did yesterday, straight down for a while.  

Argentina is rising so far this morning on Bailout Hopes.  Please keep this on your radar because these things are not that easy to fix once they start - back in 1995 it was a mess in Mexico when it happened and ended up costing the US and IMF a ton of money to fix.  If the US has to spend a bunch of money, it could make rates go up or even cause a contagion.  The IMF is saying "no thanks" to helping because this is about the 5th time Argentina has done this thing.  Watch the Argentinian Peso over the next few weeks for signs of weakness.

Levels:

All the best;

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0932 ET on Sept 24th.

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 79F, expected range is 91/76

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data point for today is: