Market Commentary for Thursday, September 25, 2025, by Peter Cook
We are gapping down. Why? No reason really, the market just has too many people shorting volatility and we are struggling with sentiment now.
With gaps like this, often it takes 30-45 minutes in the first hour to shake everyone out, which looks like what's going on now. We'll look for a turn back up hopefully if we hit some of these Put Walls. That would be a nice place to see Market Makers at least attempt a bounce.
We got inflation data in the form of the PCE measurement in the GDP and it was very hot. GDP came in as a "beat" which probably seems good, except that inflation (PCE) was 2.5% compared to only 1.6% last quarter. That is a really big jump.
We will look for signs that the Rate Cuts Odds are going down via the CME FedWatch. This market is 100% settled on one path only - rate cuts and lower than expected inflation is the normal view of things. I think that view is being challenged this morning.
#COST reports earnings and there is heavy, heavy put buying in that name ahead of the print.
Levels:
All the best;
Peter Cook
#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
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This email went out to HA Members at 0941 ET on Sept 25th.
