another BIG miss in NFP

Tweet

 August NFP came at 22k vs 77k

yesterday Job Cuts Reports by Challenger had higher (almost 86k) mainly in construction and manufacturing

rates dropped again today

Fed will cut 91-day T-Bill rates this month on Sept 17th = 25bp or possibly 50bp

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

Tweet

Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 80F, expected range is 83/77

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

August NFP is on deck

Market Commentary for Thursday, September 4, 2025, by Peter Cook

Tweet

We got a nice little 30-minute rally at the end of the day, otherwise yesterday didn't look so hot.  I sat there for almost 2 hours waiting on the thing to move in the early afternoon and gave up right before it went up (I felt like a dummy, but it wore me out).  

Two stocks accounted for most of the rise, both on news that they wouldn't get broken up with anti-trust stuff.  The ruling was a joke if you read it like I did.  The market didn't even expect the judge to cave like he did and the market is pretty good at pricing that kind of thing in.  

But we don't trade the market we want, we trade the market we got.  And this one has GOOG up at levels where I wouldn't touch it.  I said yesterday it was a short and it's down 1.3% this morning. 

Jobs data is splashed all over CNBC Comedy Central Show.  ADP data is showing very steep weakening of the labor market, but I don't care as much about that.  

The one I cared about this morning is the Challenger Jobs Cuts report and that thing is showing we are about to see a Tsunami of layoffs.  Intentions are up 38% y/y now, which is up last month from just 13% y/y.  That is inflecting like a Hockey stick now.  

Not only that but the ADP report showed 4.4% wage inflation for job stayers and a whopping 7.1% wage increases for people hopping jobs.  If you have a job and switch you are "in" and pass the scrutiny, but if you've lost your job, you are considered "out", and you aren't getting hired.  Hiring intentions in August are just 1,494, down 53.3 percent from 3,200 in July and down 75.5 percent form 6,101 in August 2024.  Awful. 

The definition of Stagflation.

My original plan going into the year was to look for the manufacturing and industrial production to roll over in August (it has along with the jobs market) and for that to eventually result in a recession in the Spring of 2026 and a large-scale spike in inflation sometimes between now and the Spring of next year.  A secular Bear market should come as a result sometime between.  So far, it looks like it's lining up well.  The only tricky thing will be when the AI Bubble finally pops.  #NVDA earnings definitely showed the very first signs of weakening demand in spots.  

I do have top signals on the weeklies for the #MAGS ETF (#MAG 7).  Last seen in December right before the Bear Market and before that in July 2024 before a big correction started. 

That doesn't mean we stop trading or get all bear-ed up, it just means we get ready to get out and have a plan, that's all.  We'll do well shorting the market when the time comes and in the mean-time, we pick our spots and take longs with measured risk.  Despite what we see today, we need to realize it takes time for the rest of the world to see what we see.  

My metrics say today is poor for day trading, so I'm skipping it in favor of some Rest and Relaxation.  

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 1009 ET on Sept 4th

Market Commentary for Tuesday, September 3, 2025, by Peter Cook

Tweet

We got a major crypto wipeout yesterday in the altcoin universe.  Today they are rallying - there was a TON of puts purchased on the open yesterday in the Gemini Exchange (the one that serves crypto).  Should be a nice setup again to squeeze early shorts. 

#GOOG got a reprieve from anti-trust penalties and it's up 8%.  Looks like a short to me.  

We will see JOLTS (job openings) data today (this is one that could be influenced by Trump's new appointee) - will be fun to see what the numbers say. 

NQ has a nice 23475-23485 on NQ is a heavy, heavy resistance line that needs to get overcome.  I am watching and seeing if we can do it today.  I have my doubts.  

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0930 ET on Sept 3rd.

Market Commentary for Friday, August 29, 2025, by Peter Cook

Tweet

The #NVDA hangover is finally here (no surprise to readers of this little missive).  Retail in Korea #EWY was rough last night, and the tape was not great. #MRVL reported (a retail favorite) and it sucked so stock is down almost 18%.  I had someone tell me they thought #NVDA was going to 200 yesterday - whoops!

#PCE and #Inflation numbers this morning were perfect matches to consensus (magically).  And after months of not matching too...The prior readings were revised up, up, up and that is all you need to know.  The consensus is wrong / behind and the trend of inflation is going up.  It is very simple.  That's not bullish. 

My metrics suggest it's a good day to Day Trade and I'll be pressing longs again.  We have setups appearing right now near support.  They are shaking the trees a little bit this morning. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

Chicago PMI Big Miss

Tweet

 

He won't like this either but he can't find all the PMs.  LoL !!

Trade Deficits & Tariffs: What’s Happening?

Tweet

 

Trade Deficits & Tariffs: What’s Happening?

1. Recent Surge in Trade Deficit

In July 2025, the U.S. goods trade deficit jumped sharply—up 22% to $103.6 billion, largely attributed to firms rushing to import before a new wave of tariffs took effect on August 1 The Guardian+15MarketWatch+15Investopedia+15. This surge was driven by a substantial increase in imports (+$18.6B) while exports saw a minor decline Reuters.

2. Earlier Dip in Deficit (June)

Contrastingly, in June 2025, the deficit shrank by 16% to $60.2 billion—its lowest level in about two years. This was largely due to a sharp decline in consumer goods imports after tariffs began to bite Visual Capitalist+15Reuters+15The Times of India+15.

3. Inventory Stockpiling Effect

Tariffs prompted a wave of “import acceleration” early in the year, with companies importing ahead of higher duties. This pushed deficits up in Q1, but post-surge, inventories and imports declined, helping narrow the deficit in Q2 IndiatimesInvestopediaBureau of Economic Analysis. Nevertheless, year-to-date through June, the overall goods and services deficit rose 38.3%, with imports up 12.1% y/y The Wall Street Journal+5Bureau of Economic Analysis+5Reuters+5.

4. Structural Limits of Tariffs

Experts caution that tariffs are generally ineffective at reducing trade deficits in the long run. They often only shift trade patterns—exports decline, production shifts, and economic inefficiencies build Tax Foundation+8Intereconomics+8piie.com+8.

5. Compounding Policy & Fiscal Drag

Moreover, policies like aggressive tax cuts and increased spending may worsen deficits and strengthen the dollar, making exports more expensive and imports cheaper—thus working against the goal of reducing the trade imbalance washingtonpost.com.

---

Summary: Are Trade Deficits Getting Worse with Tariffs?

• Short-term: Yes, visible through the July surge as businesses front-loaded imports ahead of tariff hikes.

• Medium-term: Mixed—June saw a narrowing, but the overall year-to-date deficit has increased substantially.

• Long-term: Tariffs tend not to sustainably reduce deficits; structural economic dynamics, fiscal policy, and the dollar’s strength generally play a larger role.

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

Tweet

Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 76F, expected range is 92/74

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

we have three key econ data points on deck today

Fed will pay most attention to PCE data

Market Commentary for Thursday, August 28, 2025, by Peter Cook

Tweet

We saw #NVDA come and go with earnings and the initial reaction was negative.  We sold off to around 171 after the announcement (there are lots of puts as support at 165) and there are lots of calls around 178.  Pushing under those calls is more likely this afternoon.  I still like 0DTE puts on that one.  Right now we are testing the little reaction low there in the Pre-Market session.  I would think we'd want to go test the earnings reaction low there. 

Typically gapping down on #NVDA earnings is bearish. The last 9 times it's happened we were higher 3 weeks later only once.  That's not good!

#GDP was "good" this morning - but it's mostly an artifact of the Tariffs being front run and then undone and then front run and then finally settling here.  Personal consumption numbers were weakest since 2023 if you don't count last quarter, really not that great.  But this is better than a Tariff punch to the face.  

#Jobs data came in this morning, and it was "meh."  It's stuck in a not great place with lots of people stuck continuing claims over and over and over again - not able to find jobs.  It remains a low hiring environment for most. 

My metrics suggest it's a good day to Day Trade and I'll be pressing longs again.  Yesterday was boring, we only had one setup happen after the #NVDA earnings were released.  I didn't put on any trades until the after hours yesterday.  

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

Tweet

Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 82F, expected range is 92/77

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

GDP came in a tad better than expected, Indices are up, Bonds are pretty much unchanged

and Jobless Claims 4-week moving average is rising, albeit with a shallow slope