Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Market Commentary for Tuesday, September 30, 2025, by Peter Cook
We are struggling overnight, and the tape looks weak. Bitcoin #BTCUSD backed off the Sunday gap up in the futures (yes, I know Bitcoin trades 24/7). Typically, a gap up on Sunday like that for Bitcoin is bearish.
Yesterday's candle is bearish for today, only 44% chance of higher.
Shutdown stuff is the main thing we'll keep an eye on today. Kalshi has the odds around 76% now and rising. Cramer says the shutdown doesn't matter and market should be fine. That should be concerning for us.
My metrics suggest today is a poor day for day trading, so I'll skip it.
We are resting on top of support there around 663 on #SPY, under that is negative gamma and we could break weekly support.
Levels:
All the best;
Peter Cook
#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp
This email went out to Members at 0827 ET on Sept 30th.
GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders
Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 79F, expected range is 87/75
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Critical Econ Data points for today are:
Monday, September 29, 2025
Market Commentary for Monday, September 29, 2025, by Peter Cook
We are gapping up and all the silly stuff is running again.
#Gold, gold miners, #FFTY and #NVDA is running. #INTC is weak though. I have puts on $INTC expecting it to completely fall apart soon.
We gapped Bitcoin futures up on Sunday - the last 14 times that has happened we are lower than today's close 11 out of 14 times. It is bearish.
We get the JPM Collar roll after tomorrow - that will reduce the tendency of this market to be so resilient.
VXN is up 3% this morning, most of the Vix complex continues to rise - extending correlations with the indexes further and further out (Vix up Indexes Up). This is a very, very bearish thing to see.
#QQQ is up almost 1% as I type this and yet only 49% of the #SPX is advancing. Not good.
Levels:
All the best;
Peter Cook
#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp
This email went out to Members at 1014 ET on Sept 29th.
GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders
Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 77F, expected range is 90/77 with 80% chanse of rain
Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms
ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO!
Critical Econ Data points for today are:
Friday, September 26, 2025
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