Thursday, September 25, 2025

Market Commentary for Thursday, September 25, 2025, by Peter Cook

 

We are gapping down.  Why?  No reason really, the market just has too many people shorting volatility and we are struggling with sentiment now.  


With gaps like this, often it takes 30-45 minutes in the first hour to shake everyone out, which looks like what's going on now.  We'll look for a turn back up hopefully if we hit some of these Put Walls.  That would be a nice place to see Market Makers at least attempt a bounce.  


We got inflation data in the form of the PCE measurement in the GDP and it was very hot.  GDP came in as a "beat" which probably seems good, except that inflation (PCE) was 2.5% compared to only 1.6% last quarter.  That is a really big jump.


We will look for signs that the Rate Cuts Odds are going down via the CME FedWatch.  This market is 100% settled on one path only - rate cuts and lower than expected inflation is the normal view of things.  I think that view is being challenged this morning.  


#COST reports earnings and there is heavy, heavy put buying in that name ahead of the print. 


Levels:





All the best;


 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC



Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 


This email went out to HA Members at 0941 ET on Sept 25th.


GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders


Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 78F, expected range is 90/76

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

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Rates are rising as Econ Data came in a lot better than Consensus Estimates:   there goes the Fed rate cuts? who knows !!



these are the good data points for our Economy:






Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Admiral Tiko's Stock of the Day


MicroStrategy (MSTR) is on a SELL 

Price Target is 306 (negative 4 sigma)

notice the death cross (50 MA crossing below 200 MA) could be next 

 


PMT Trade #396 is out

Login to your PMT to see the trade

Admiral Tiko's PMT Chart of the Day = 3-mo. #VIX Futures Spread (#VX_F)

 


as 3-month VIX Futures (Long Ocotber25, Short January26) improves (rises), it signifies that broad market is in the SELL mode.

Bottom is very near when the spread prints ZERO....


Market Commentary for Wednesday, September 24, 2025, by Peter Cook


Looks like we are holding steady overnight, which isn't too surprising given we were sitting on top of weekly VWAPs at the end of the session yesterday.


0DTE Gamma shows a lot of puts at 663 on SPY, heavy support.  If it breaks, we could pull the same kind of move we did yesterday, straight down for a while.  


Argentina is rising so far this morning on Bailout Hopes.  Please keep this on your radar because these things are not that easy to fix once they start - back in 1995 it was a mess in Mexico when it happened and ended up costing the US and IMF a ton of money to fix.  If the US has to spend a bunch of money, it could make rates go up or even cause a contagion.  The IMF is saying "no thanks" to helping because this is about the 5th time Argentina has done this thing.  Watch the Argentinian Peso over the next few weeks for signs of weakness.


Levels:




All the best;


Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC


Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0932 ET on Sept 24th.


GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders


Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 79F, expected range is 91/76


Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 


Critical Econ Data point for today is:




Tuesday, September 23, 2025

HA Opening Range Breakout (ORB) barely made any shekels today

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Market Commentary for Tuesday, September 23, 2025, by Peter Cook


We nailed the call on the +0.65% move on #QQQ, crazy when the statistics work out.  

#BA up this morning.  It's set up nicely for a long on the Dailies. 

#GLD continues to run.  But all is not well - when it does a multi-week run like this, it's only up about 20-25% of the time in the next 6 weeks.  It's time to be locking down gains in those names. 

#NVDA is noticeably weak today.  I saw some signs the options markets are overheating in #NVDA last night, I'd avoid. This is one sign I've been looking for to get ready for a larger decline in the indices. 

I did start swinging some left-tail kind of "Vix Spike" plays using some 10-delta weekly calls.  We'll see if it works - it's a small position.  Since I'm not doing much trading now (other than day trading) I need to keep myself busy and not get in trouble. 

Levels:

 




All the best;


Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC


Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0936 ET on Sept 23rd.


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