Market Commentary for Friday, September 19, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are waiting on Settlement and Options Expiration.  I don't have much this morning, but we are still seeing the "Sell the News" stuff verify with bonds down, dollar up and Asia weak (which also makes Crypto weak). 

Europe bought the Asia dip, and they seem to be in a good mood.  We'll see if that persists.  Remember their options expire after today.  US options expire this morning and then in the afternoon into the close as most people will sell for profit or loss, not wanting to accept assignment.  

The expiration is "call heavy" which means we will need to see a lot of people roll their options up and out in order to "go up."  We typically have a big hangover next week when that happens. There is still a lot of support at 650 on SPY though, it'll take some hammering away to chip at it and knock it loose.  

#SMH (Semiconductor stocks) went up significantly yesterday.  That's a big red flag for me and a sign of a pretty significant top there.  Please be careful on those stocks and locate your exits, the next few months are going to be very, very rocky over there. 

#INTC (Intel) went up 20+% yesterday.  It's done a 15+% move 4 other times in the last 25 years of history and every single time within a month it's retraced at least -15%.  It isn't bullish to see stocks move like that, it is usually a sign of excessive speculation.  

Levels:

All the best;

  

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0956 ET on Sept 19th.

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 80F, expected range is 90/74

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data points for today are:  NONE

Today is Sept OX (Options Expiration) for Stock Options, Index Options & Index Futures

Fari Hamzei to speak at @NinjaTrader @NTEcosystem at 430pm today

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Subject is 20 of HA Prop Indicators for better trading #FUTURES

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HA ORB lost a tad today

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 HA Opening Range Breakout (ORB) for NASDAQ-100 Futures

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Market Commentary for Thursday, September 18, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are gapping up on news this morning.  #NVDA is "investing" in #INTC (that now makes the Federal Government and the largest corporation on the planet trying to save #INTC).  What a stupid use of money, but I guess #NVDA is thinking they can try to brand their tech with an #INTC name and try to get around the ban in China or the export controls in the US.   We'll see if that works or not. 

Chips are up on that, but we are well off the overnight highs due to some morning selling.  

We saw the Call Wall move DOWN on SPY yesterday, that tells me we had a lot of people betting that we'd be ripping upward on FOMC day.  Instead, we did nothing and burned all that premium.  If we see market makers try to take this back under 660 to kill the Calls, it will really sting.  

I looked at the moves in the last 2 hours of the session yesterday and it looked like mostly "Sell the News" stuff. Builders down, bonds down, oil and gas operators down. The candle yesterday on IWM is exceptionally bearish out a week or so.  

I'll be looking to see in the next few days if we continue to verify that first knee-jerk reaction Post-FOMC or not.  Tomorrow is the key, as we get a reset of the Call Heavy options markets.  Then comes the move at the end of the month with the JP Morgan Collar. 

Levels:

All the best;

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0935 ET on Sept 18th.

Upside Surprise

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GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from [partly] Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 74F, expected range is 86/72

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data points for today are:

And, tomorrow is September Expiration for Stocks, Options & Futures.  I will only trade in the morning.  Hate OX afternoons.

How are the Big-Cap High-Beta names are fairing post FOMC Rate Cut

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Let's look at top five favorites traded by active traders, sorted by beta

they all look the pretty much the same --  a tad sick (with exception of #TSLA)

keep an eye on negative sigma levels for a potential buy points

use call spreads with long duration

FED Action

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Fed Cuts Rates by Quarter Point and Signals More Are Likely - WSJ

Market Commentary for Wednesday, September 17, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are treading water ahead of the big FOMC announcement (Rate Cuts). 

I don't have a big read on it today, but TradeStation is suspending margins after 1 PM, which usually means some fireworks are coming.

China is banning #NVDA chips.  That has our fearless leaders a little irritated this morning, but the market doesn't really care so far.  Mostly because the US already bans #NVDA from selling anything good to China, so they end up using #AMD instead.  

I don't trade FOMC, I usually skip it.  I think the bigger event will be the huge, Call Heavy expiration that comes Friday morning with effects that will be felt next week.  If we don't see the animal spirits continue by rolling calls up and out, then this market will sink under its own bloated weight. 

Levels:

All the best;

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0900 ET on Sept 17th.