Market Commentary for Friday, September 19, 2025, by Peter Cook
We are waiting on Settlement and Options Expiration. I don't have much this morning, but we are still seeing the "Sell the News" stuff verify with bonds down, dollar up and Asia weak (which also makes Crypto weak).
Europe bought the Asia dip, and they seem to be in a good mood. We'll see if that persists. Remember their options expire after today. US options expire this morning and then in the afternoon into the close as most people will sell for profit or loss, not wanting to accept assignment.
The expiration is "call heavy" which means we will need to see a lot of people roll their options up and out in order to "go up." We typically have a big hangover next week when that happens. There is still a lot of support at 650 on SPY though, it'll take some hammering away to chip at it and knock it loose.
#SMH (Semiconductor stocks) went up significantly yesterday. That's a big red flag for me and a sign of a pretty significant top there. Please be careful on those stocks and locate your exits, the next few months are going to be very, very rocky over there.
#INTC (Intel) went up 20+% yesterday. It's done a 15+% move 4 other times in the last 25 years of history and every single time within a month it's retraced at least -15%. It isn't bullish to see stocks move like that, it is usually a sign of excessive speculation.
Levels:
All the best;
Peter Cook
#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp
This email went out to Members at 0956 ET on Sept 19th.
