Industrial Production was revised down BIGly

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Market Commentary for Tuesday, September 16, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We had a gap up this morning from the bid overnight in Asia, but it's wilting so far near the open. 

Indexes seeing lots of put buying, especially out into next week.  Puts normally cost about 8% less than calls, but we see they are about 25% more expensive here.  That means lots of demand. 

At the same time, I'm seeing a ton of flow shorting Vix and it is setup to spike (I bought some Vix calls yesterday right on the open).  

I don't know if I've seen the market this "split" in a long time - maybe February of 2017 when Trump was out there and cut the Taxes.  We started running hard, and people really shorted the heck out of the thing after the election.  They got run over at that time.  It doesn't mean the same thing will happen here though. 

This is one weird market.  The tech stuff is squeezing early shorts for sure (#GOOG is really bad) but it's starting to morph into a bid where the Call Flow is returning and that should put a serious brake on this.  So, the squeezes are almost done. 

Many stocks are putting in large range days and reversing (e.g. #TSLA yesterday).  But #TSLA still needs to break the Anchored VWAP from 9/12 to get more bearish.  I'll be looking for that soon.  

The last thing I see here, sitting there having done NOTHING for months is #DJT.  It has to squeeze at some point; it usually does when it gets like this. I have some YOLO calls on that one. 

I'll look for support at the 0DTE Implied lows today and see if we can get some longs.  It's been very, very slim pickings for me trading over the last week.  Not many setups due to the low volatility. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0935 ET on Sept 16th.

Bi-Monthly #Stock #Market #Timing for #SPX #NDX #SPY #QQQ #ES_F #NQ_F

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GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 75F, expected range is 90/75

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

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FED meets today & tomorrow for its Sept FOMC Session 

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HA ORB Plus Results of automated #NQ_F Trading for Today

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 HA Opening Range Breakout (ORB) Plus for NASDAQ-100 Futures

(trades both MNQ & NQ)

for Monday, September 15, 2025

Using 3 NQZ25 contracts: 

let's do the Math

3 NQ contracts need $3,333 x 3 = $10,000 in margin money

so here in less than 2 hrs it made a tad over 17 %

Here is the equity curve for NQZ25 in last 60 trading days:

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Market Commentary for Monday, September 15, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We got Elon Musk buying a bunch of #TSLA stock today.  We are scraping the bottom of the barrel to find more folks to get involved with the market here and I guess that moves the needle these days. 

That actually has some stocks like #GOOG moving too.  #GOOG has quite a few people trying to buy puts on it, and they are getting squeezed.  It's putting in a Major Weekly Top though and in the next few months it's going to be rough over there.  I have a hard time believing the indexes are going to escape that aftermath unscathed. 

Vix is up this morning - not surprising.  I'm buying some October 22nd,  20-25 Delta Calls on Vix here.  I rarely ever do that; it has to be a pretty compelling setup.  This is definitely one of those setups.  I'm also watching the bonds for another "Sell the News" move similar to the last time the Fed started cutting rates (long rates went up 1% when Fed cut almost 1%). 

We are opening around the 660 Call Wall on SPY - typically that results in selling.  My metrics say it's still a nice day to trade some longs if we can get this thing to actually sell though.  It has been difficult to get any setups lately due to the low volatility - today kind of looks like it'll be the same. 

Levels:

All the best;

  

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0956 ET on Sept 15th.

#SPX Price to Sales Ratio

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Updated Video for HAPI CI DOT is posted here:

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see & read more about all of our Ninja Trader Indicators here:  

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HA ORB #NQ_F Trading System's Performance for today

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 HA Opening Range Breakout (ORB) for NASDAQ-100 Futures

(trades both MNQ & NQ)

for Friday, September 12, 2025 

Using 3 NQU25 contracts: 

let's do the Math

3 NQ contracts need $3,333 x 3 = $10,000 in margin money

so here in less than 2 hrs it made a tad over 32 %

Here are two ways you can join this wonderful tool:

NO TRADESTATION NEEDED

A) Self-directed Trading is done in our NQ Chatroom.... Click here to go thru PayPal: 

https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp

B) Run it thru Striker Securities in Chicago - totally hands off

https://striker.com/searchsystems.php?detail=on&sysID=3705

Market Commentary for Friday, September 12, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We got the CPI and PPI out of the way and now the market is pricing in the possibility of 6 cuts instead of "maybe 2".  That is not rational, if you are a passive investor, you better hope this thing doesn't need 6 cuts because if it does it'll be down 20% or more. 

Let's hope we can get through Friday and into Rollover without any more drama.  

Consumer Sentiment is at 10 AM, should be more of the same (Dems in the toilet, Repubs more or less happy but slowly declining in sentiment mostly due to inflation and not being able to find workers for their businesses).  

It's a good day to press longs.  SpotGamma had 656 on SPY as the Put Wall, which is bizarre.  They made a mistake I think - Put Wall is really at 640 on SPY.  None the less, there is a fair chunk of puts at 656 and that might end up being heavy support.  I'm going to press longs as long as we are over 656 on SPY. 

Levels:

All the best;

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0935 ET on Sept 12th.