Market Commentary for Tuesday, September 16, 2025, by Peter Cook
We had a gap up this morning from the bid overnight in Asia, but it's wilting so far near the open.
Indexes seeing lots of put buying, especially out into next week. Puts normally cost about 8% less than calls, but we see they are about 25% more expensive here. That means lots of demand.
At the same time, I'm seeing a ton of flow shorting Vix and it is setup to spike (I bought some Vix calls yesterday right on the open).
I don't know if I've seen the market this "split" in a long time - maybe February of 2017 when Trump was out there and cut the Taxes. We started running hard, and people really shorted the heck out of the thing after the election. They got run over at that time. It doesn't mean the same thing will happen here though.
This is one weird market. The tech stuff is squeezing early shorts for sure (#GOOG is really bad) but it's starting to morph into a bid where the Call Flow is returning and that should put a serious brake on this. So, the squeezes are almost done.
Many stocks are putting in large range days and reversing (e.g. #TSLA yesterday). But #TSLA still needs to break the Anchored VWAP from 9/12 to get more bearish. I'll be looking for that soon.
The last thing I see here, sitting there having done NOTHING for months is #DJT. It has to squeeze at some point; it usually does when it gets like this. I have some YOLO calls on that one.
I'll look for support at the 0DTE Implied lows today and see if we can get some longs. It's been very, very slim pickings for me trading over the last week. Not many setups due to the low volatility.
Levels:
All the best;
Peter Cook
#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
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This email went out to Members at 0935 ET on Sept 16th.
