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Market Commentary for Friday, October 3, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are gapping up slightly here and running over the Call Wall on SPY at 670 and into the 0DTE Implied Highs.  This will cause some selling.  Be careful up here because we have been seeing large, red 30-minute bars when this kind of thing happens. 

Still watching the crash setup from a couple days ago.  Just because it's up a couple days doesn't mean much to be honest.  

I still see Call to Put Gamma very elevated (meaning lots of call buying).  Put Call Ratios got into the bad place too.  Once we squeeze some of these early shorts in select names, we may have found out last buyers.  

Vix continues to remain elevated, likely from continued pressure from the Chaos unfolding in DC. 

We had a fire at a refinery in California - that is something to watch because California gas is special and the oil companies charge them and arm and a leg for it.  Could make gas prices move in California. 

Despite the setup on the dailies looking so ominous, we continue to see day trading work for us - I'm targeting the 0DTE Implied Lows hopefully again today for a long.  It worked almost to the tick yesterday and we caught nice trade off those levels. 

Levels:

All the best;

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 1001 ET on October 3rd

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 76F, expected range is 88/73

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data points for today are: No NFP today due to Gov Shutdown

Market Commentary for Thursday, September 2, 2025, by Peter Cook

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We are gapping up into the Call Wall on SPY at 670.  Typically, that results in market makers coming out to slam this down.  The 30-Minute charts are roasted and toasted, so we might need to rest here.

We are still working through a crash setup, but we saw yesterday the market tipped its hand.  I said I wanted to see if shorts got squeezed because they had really loaded the boat up with puts and we got the squeeze yesterday.  You could tell because we went parabolic into the 2:30 PM EST margin call timeslot and after that it kind of stopped going up.  Don't get complacent because the same thing happened on 7/31/24 and the next week it still crashed.

Korea again was up 2%, dragging gold and bitcoin with it.  Some of the chip stocks that have been resting for weeks like #AMD are revving back up this morning and trying to run again.  

The Challenger Jobs Cuts report showed layoff intentions kind of moderating.  That's good to see.  I still expect the DOGE stuff to kind of peak into the Fall (especially if the elections turn out poorly for Rs).  Fed cutting into improving jobs market should create large inflation.

Still ALOT of hedging going on, betting on the market to go down, whatever you want to call it right now. 

I got some comments on the Bank puts yesterday so I figured I would share the chart, so you can see what I see.  I did screw up one thing, instead of 34,000 puts, it was "only" 11,000 on the volume (I looked at the wrong axis on the graph, mea culpa).  It is still ALOT of puts compared to normal.  Red bars/yellow bars = Put Volume, Open Interest and the Green Bars = Calls Volume, Open Interest and the bottom oscillator just measures when there is imbalance in the flow.  

It looks like those 11,000 puts never made it into the OI (so they were probably a 1-day hedge, but I think they were LEAPS way out into 2026 and 2027 if I recall).  None the less, if you look at individual names (MS or JPM) and even the KRE (Regional Bank ETF) there is still heavy put buying going on (and it is making its way into the OI).  So, the broader theme is still a lot of hedging going on.  

And if the timing is off just a little bit - those folks will have to cover their shorts, close their puts with a loss, etc. This is what we have going on right now.  

My number 1 rule for shorting is that I don't do it until the indexes fall under the 200 Day Moving Average.  I find it just doesn't work nearly as well as when we are in a Primary Uptrend. 

The gamma ratios are setting up bearish here after yesterday's bender.  Typically, it takes a day or two to roll over, but I'm expecting weakness sometime in the next week. 

Levels:

All the best;

   

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0907 ET on October 2nd

Admiral Tiko's Market Timing Chart of the Day = HA SP2 Indicator

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Do you see the Bearish Divergence (higher high in #SPX but with lower HA SP2?)

but keeps on going higher

this will NOT end well..... way too much fluff 

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 75F, expected range is 89/74

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data points for today are:

let's hope the Gov Data are NOT delayed like the Construction Spending stats was yesterday

we have enough chaos already, but we can't be flying blind on top of the chaos we already see everywhere....

Market Commentary for Wednesday, October 1, 2025, by Peter Cook

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Asia last night was a bit of a blood bath, but Europe is buying the dip. 

I don't trust this despite the setup being pretty good - I got long signals on the RTY last night but had to close up my trades with small gains after I saw the 0DTE Skew this morning. 

We are in a crash setup - the last 2 times this happened we had -7% drawdowns within a week.  Will it happen again?  I have no idea.  I just know enough to know that I stay far away if this kind of thing starts.  The put buying on the Banks and insurance stocks is obscene right now.  Someone dropped 34,000 Puts on the KBE (Bank ETF) yesterday and that thing rarely trades that kind of volume.  For comparison there were 393 Calls purchased yesterday.  

Typically, that kind of stuff resolves in a short squeeze / bullish.  But this is that rare circumstance where they are paying so much, so fast for puts that it should give you pause.  What do they know?

ADP Employment data is a disaster, and we are back to pricing in 5-6 cuts again.  The local and state government DOGE stuff is hitting hard.  And Argentina is back to performing poorly after Bessent jawboned the market higher for a few days - they are going to need a Bailout and it ain't going to be cheap.  

The line in the sand is 6700 today on ES - under that and it's a no touch until we retest overnight lows, else it's probably fine (for today, not the rest of the week).  

PLEASE BE CAREFUL THIS IS NOT A JOKE.

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0931 ET on October 1st.

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

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Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 76F, expected range is 92/74

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data points for today are:

first two both had big misses

HA ORB had a big loss today, due to chaos in the index markets

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Admiral Tiko's Second Stock of the Day is #NVDA

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Target is 191 (+3 sigma daily)