Poll: HA Options Webinar Series Featuring The Admiral

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Help us create this options educational webinar so it will help you the most.  Please fill out the poll below.

Trade #Options Like a DPM Webinars

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with The Admiral Wednesday 1800 CT http://bit.ly/aNJvTu

[DPM = Designated Primary Market Maker] 

Updated SPX Analog 2010 vs 2007 Chart

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http://yfrog.com/12lgvp

for usage explanation need to watch tonight's webinar http://bit.ly/1VjQwW

Trading TF Webinar

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The incredible TF Trading Webinar with our SuperWoman @JT707 is now available for your review http://bit.ly/7Fnxe

We will add her Slides shortly

Do not miss her section on "War Chest" -- it is a key to your trading success

an interview with Jeffrey Lin of marketHEIST.com

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Fari Hamzei on Building a Twitter Following & HFT Real-Time Trading Service http://bit.ly/d6c5hi

Market Timing Charts Revisited as of Friday Close, February 26th, 2010

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Fari Hamzei

With the last week of trading for February behind us, the technical picture has not changed much since my last Market Timing Webinar last Sunday.

Next Friday, the Feb NFP will be published by BLS and should provide us some fireworks.  I expect a number around -50K for Feb NFP.  Until then, market should trade in a tight range for the next four days with a slight up bias (look at the CIs below in the Timer Chart and candlestick hammer put in on SPX on last Thursday, with low of its wick touching zero sigma).

Vols Chart chart confirms that (failure for VXO, VXN to get over their respective zero sigmas -- the yellow line).

And, last but not least, our coveted SP1 Indicator is in the +1 to +2 sigma channel (ideal up bias zone) for now.

Market Timing Charts Revisited -- as of Friday Close, February 5th, 2010

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Fari Hamzei

I had one of the greatest trading weeks in a while.  IMHO, more than once, I got very lucky.  These charts & comments were posted earlier today on our Open Twitter Feed ( http://twitter.com/hamzeianalytics ).

Let's start with our Timer Chart.

Notice the "Hammer" candlesticks with very low McClellan Oscillators readings after down/up volume ratio spike day (Thursday).  And both CIs are GREEN with NAZZ's having a flat slope -- most likely Monday will be an UP day IMHO.  Also worth noting is that SPX bounced off of MS1 (monthly support one) while trading below -2 sigma during Friday RTH.

Above is Vol of the Vols Chart with an intraday spike of VXO to +3sigma and VXN to +2sigma.  It was nothing out of ordinary, when we take into account the intraday volatility and range of the preceding few sessions and then Friday being Jan NFP (historically a high risk/high reward trading day).

Our coveted SP1_MoMo Chart: when we look carefully, we see a weak bullish divergence here between MoMo vs SP1, further vouching for a small dead cat bounce here.

% of SPX Components above their respective 200 Day MAs in the chart above is sinking fast. IMHO, for now, the PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE is **DOWN**.

See you all in the morning - bright and early -- Go Saints Go !! 

Market Timing Charts Revisited -- as of Friday Close, January 29th, 2010

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Fari Hamzei

Here is our Timer Chart with NYSE McClellan Oscillator closing the week at -286, 7thday in the row below the negative 150 oversold threshold.  We keep on reminding ourselves that a short/term bounce, albeit a dead cat bounce, should be near.  Notice NASDAQ Volume MO is also pretty nasty -- many names being punished despite of good [/quality] earnings.  Yet we have not seen a volume spike.  Even with a dead cat bounce, the selling should resume till we see capitulation.  Next stop for SPX should be its 200-bar moving average (which is a fast moving target here).  IOHO, maybe around 1020.  SELL THE RALLIES.

As far as vols are concerned, the ROC of Vols have slowed down but now lining up into a clean and rising +1 to +2 channel upward channels.

The % of SPX components over their respective 200 bar MovAvg chart needs no explanation.  KIDs are running for the hills.  Hearing IPO windows tightening up, private equity and VCs boyz are getting a bit nervous.  It is still early.

Our coveted SP1 MoMo Indicators getting a real Royal Flush.  Long Term [Modified] Breadth (SP1) looks worse than it did at October lows, while Short Term [Modified] Breadth (MoMo) does not.  This tells us a strong push down, after a dead cat bounce (should we be lucky to witness it), is a must somewhere here.  Next big news day, is this coming Friday Feb 5th (Jan Non-Farm Payroll at 0730 CT), could well turn out to be the Mother of All NFPs.  Small accounts should step aside and stay on sidelines.

Bottom Line:  Washington Policy Makers are dueling it out on weekend news programs. We were very happy to see Dr. Ben Bernanke finally was confirmed to serve another term at The Temple.  (This is a great read http://bit.ly/ErrJ0 ).

Both intraday and long term Vols are rising and we are seeing some trending days.  This is day traders paradise.  We are in heavens.  Brokers and Sausage Makers are not so lucky.

Tactical Market Timing as of Close of Friday, January 22, 2010

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Fari Hamzei
We went thru a tumultuous week of corporate earnings, political, financial and geopolitical surprises, some with dire unintended consequences. 

Those of you who attended my last market timing webinar held on Monday January 18th(http://hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp), should remember my dire warnings.  Our charts had a series of bearish divergence setups.  Brad Sullivan's comments were also spot on.  Now let's go thru our proprietary charts:

Our Timer Chart shows a shallow rise, and not a hard spike, in Down to Up Volume Ratio.  This is a mood change IMHO.  SPX was at MR1 Level (Monthly Resistance One) on Friday OX (Jan 15).  Last three trading sessions, nastiest since prior March 9th lows, while producing a slightly higher volumes, pushed SPX down to MS1 Level (Monthly Support One).  Our CI Indicator turned south sharply.  No index was spared. 

Vols spiked.  VXO hit +4 sigma.  The intensity is worse than late October sell-off, and yet the McClellan Oscillator readings are higher than October lows.  IMHO, the selling has just begun.  Mid-day Friday, I posted this on Twitter: http://www.twitlonger.com/show/4q85g

Percent of SPX components above their 200 day Mov Avg reversed hard, breaking their 20 and 50 MAs.  Notice the divergence with price around the 95% Level.  This is NOT good.

Our coveted SP1 Indicator broke its rising trendline as SPX went thru its -2 sigma band and its MoMo brethren reached a short-term oversold condition.

Bottom-Line:  We should be nearing a short-term oversold condition culminating in a dead-cat bounce.  Tape feels HEAVY.  What is next could be very nasty for our fragile jobless recovery.  Not sure PPT can do anything about this one. 

SIGNIFICANT INFLECTION POINT MAY BE AT HAND

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Jeffrey Spotts, CMT

In our view, several markets, sectors, leadership groups and commodities are at an important turning point. Although we have been a bit early in this analysis, there are many opportunities for positioning in excellent risk/reward setups. Our view is that at least a weekly 4th wave pullback is in the making, allowing for a good long entry later this year. However, this condition may not present itself for several weeks, even months.

European markets have daily and weekly sell signals, perfectly set into TD PROP MOMENTUM levels:

UKX (FTSE Index) weekly repelled from weekly risk and TDST levels, with price flip (new “1” count down)

DAX index into weekly sequential 13 count with new “1” count (price flip)

CAC index into same weekly risk level and new count down

Asia weaker. The HSI and SHCOMP have broken down, with confirmed tops. Please note that Chinese markets have not made a higher high since November, unlike their European counterparts. Interestin article in Bloomberg whereby Chanos is being mocked for his newly positioned shorts in Chinese markets. Perhaps this is anectodal, complacent sentiment.

HIS weekly with 13 sell signal and close below previous 13 weeks of trading.

SHCOMP with weekly 13 sell signal, lower high, and price flip

 
Many leadership stocks in major markets have sell signals, adding to the quality of the market calls.

Apple Computer (AAPL) has rare monthly 13 sequential AND combo sell readings

Financial stocks seem to be making a parallel with the history of the Technology sector. Technology went through its bubble in 2000, after which the sector had a decent rally, and subsequent, long-term sell off, until bottoming this past low. Financials look to be finished with its rally, and is not poised to make further lows. Our focus is on the credit card sector, where politics, limits and regulation are coming.

American Express (AXP) weekly 13 combo sell and price flip

 
Commodity-related equities have undoubtably been the leadership in global equities over the past year. This group is highly correlllated to emerging markets. There seems to be room for significant pullbacks in these areas.

The Dow Jones US Basic Materials index (DJUSBM) with daily sell signals at high.

As stated, our view is that many markets are poised for a significant pullback, with at least a several week duration. Sentiment surely supports this with recent AAII and other investor polls.