Market Commentary for Wednesday, October 1, 2025, by Peter Cook

Tweet

Asia last night was a bit of a blood bath, but Europe is buying the dip. 

I don't trust this despite the setup being pretty good - I got long signals on the RTY last night but had to close up my trades with small gains after I saw the 0DTE Skew this morning. 

We are in a crash setup - the last 2 times this happened we had -7% drawdowns within a week.  Will it happen again?  I have no idea.  I just know enough to know that I stay far away if this kind of thing starts.  The put buying on the Banks and insurance stocks is obscene right now.  Someone dropped 34,000 Puts on the KBE (Bank ETF) yesterday and that thing rarely trades that kind of volume.  For comparison there were 393 Calls purchased yesterday.  

Typically, that kind of stuff resolves in a short squeeze / bullish.  But this is that rare circumstance where they are paying so much, so fast for puts that it should give you pause.  What do they know?

ADP Employment data is a disaster, and we are back to pricing in 5-6 cuts again.  The local and state government DOGE stuff is hitting hard.  And Argentina is back to performing poorly after Bessent jawboned the market higher for a few days - they are going to need a Bailout and it ain't going to be cheap.  

The line in the sand is 6700 today on ES - under that and it's a no touch until we retest overnight lows, else it's probably fine (for today, not the rest of the week).  

PLEASE BE CAREFUL THIS IS NOT A JOKE.

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0931 ET on October 1st.

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

Tweet

Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 76F, expected range is 92/74

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data points for today are:

first two both had big misses

HA ORB had a big loss today, due to chaos in the index markets

Tweet

 

Admiral Tiko's Second Stock of the Day is #NVDA

Tweet

 

Target is 191 (+3 sigma daily)

Admiral Tiko's Stock of the Day #MU

Tweet

 I luv Micron

Target = 182 (+2 sigma daily)

Market Commentary for Tuesday, September 30, 2025, by Peter Cook

Tweet

We are struggling overnight, and the tape looks weak.  Bitcoin #BTCUSD backed off the Sunday gap up in the futures (yes, I know Bitcoin trades 24/7).  Typically, a gap up on Sunday like that for Bitcoin is bearish. 

Yesterday's candle is bearish for today, only 44% chance of higher.  

Shutdown stuff is the main thing we'll keep an eye on today.  Kalshi has the odds around 76% now and rising.  Cramer says the shutdown doesn't matter and market should be fine.  That should be concerning for us. 

My metrics suggest today is a poor day for day trading, so I'll skip it. 

We are resting on top of support there around 663 on #SPY,  under that is negative gamma and we could break weekly support.  

Levels:

All the best;

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 0827 ET on Sept 30th.

GM #ES_F & #NQ_F Traders

Tweet

Good Morning to #Stock Index #Futures Traders from Sunny Cape Naples, FL.... Temp is 79F, expected range is 87/75

Our Real-Time Audio/Video Sharing for HA Prop DayTrading #Systems is starting now on both @Zoom + @GoToMeeting Chartrooms

ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO! 

Critical Econ Data points for today are:

Admiral Tiko's Stock of the Day is #LRCX

Tweet

 Lam Research (Semi Equip Mfg)

beta = 1.82

Market Cap = $166 Bil

Target = 141

HA ORB had a loss today

Tweet

 

Market Commentary for Monday, September 29, 2025, by Peter Cook

Tweet

We are gapping up and all the silly stuff is running again.

#Gold, gold miners, #FFTY and #NVDA is running.  #INTC is weak though. I have puts on $INTC expecting it to completely fall apart soon. 

We gapped Bitcoin futures up on Sunday - the last 14 times that has happened we are lower than today's close 11 out of 14 times.  It is bearish. 

We get the JPM Collar roll after tomorrow - that will reduce the tendency of this market to be so resilient. 

VXN is up 3% this morning, most of the Vix complex continues to rise - extending correlations with the indexes further and further out (Vix up Indexes Up).  This is a very, very bearish thing to see. 

#QQQ is up almost 1% as I type this and yet only 49% of the #SPX is advancing.  Not good. 

Levels:

 All the best;

 Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

This email went out to Members at 1014 ET on Sept 29th.