Market Commentary for Friday, August 22, 2025, by Peter Cook

 

It is a pseudo-FOMC day here and we are seeing heavy, heavy hedging right now.  

The Put to Call Gamma ratios are in very bullish territory.  People have TONS of puts under 635 on #SPY.  That means two things - typically, it means 635 will be heavy support.  But under 635 it will become gasoline on a fire if we go lower.  

We saw the Journal release a trial balloon article last night from Nick Timiros and it was timed right for the Asia open to see what kind of market reaction they'd get.  It was not good, Asia opened down a lot and continued to sell until Europe opened.  I'm a little wary about what is going to happen here when Powell talks.  Remember, normally it's a huge sell when he talks.  

Vix CoT report is showing a very, very bearish setup intermediate term.  We are seeing people short Vix to a very, very high level here.  This has not happened since we crash in April and again in December when Trump range the NYSE Bell at the market top.  

I'm not trading this today, just waiting to see what will happen. Good luck if you are trying to trade this. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

Market Commentary for Thursday, August 21, 2025, by Peter Cook

Still risk-off this morning but we are opening and quickly testing around 635 on SPY and I like that area for longs.  If we dump under it, we'll get a quick long 30-minute bar down into 560 possibly for QQQ, that's going to be bumpy and I wouldn't recommend trying to bottom pick until maybe we tag a speedbump at SYP 633.51.  

Upside today, which I think is totally doable is the 0 Gamma lines at 641 on SPY and 569 on QQQ.  

Walmart reported #WMT and they said they'd be keeping guidance for the year "despite" tariffs.  They should be raising guidance due to Tariffs because they'll be able to charge more for EVERYTHING, not just the Tariffed stuff.  They have significantly less exposure to Tariffs vs. their rivals like TGT or the DLTR / Dollar Stores.  Market is sniffing this out and stock is down this morning.  We are seeing the price of everything go up now, not just tariffed stuff.  It is a way for companies to try to spread the cost of a giant tariff on one item across other things that people usually buy WITH it (e.g. If a Grill now costs a gazillion dollars more because of all the metal tariffs now, maybe just charge more for the charcoal and accessories that might not be tariffed to try and keep the sticker shock less for the grill).  

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

Market Commentary for Wednesday, August 20, 2025, by Peter Cook

We have big time risk-off materializing this morning in the Market.  We are hitting major support levels and breaking through them to run stops briefly it seems here.  We might rally soon. 

Vix was very underpriced (spot vs 3 month futures were all out of whack) - not surprised to see Vix expiration this morning finally serve as our catalyst to trap a lot of people in very, very crowded positions.  We are in an environment finally that resembles the April crash.  

This was badly needed.  We have a lot more work to do on the Semis too like AVGO, etc.  

It's a nice spot here to try some longs as are don't usually stay under Put Walls for long.  QQQ is almost at the big blue line at 558 (Monthly Implied lows).  Often nice rallies materialize here. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

#NQ_F Chatroom Chief Moderator

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

Market Commentary for August 19, 2025, by Peter Cook

We got some retail earnings this morning with #HD reporting a poor quarter, but re-affirming guidance for later in the year (that is always dubious).  #HD is gapping up on the "bad" quarter.  You might think that is a good sign, but for #HD that isn't the case.

Out of the last 10 quarters #HD has gapped up, it's been lower 7 times a week later.  Most of them see a -2 to -5% drawdown in the ensuing 5 sessions (after today's close).  Not a terrible one to short on a gap up like this.  

One of the Fed people vying for Powell's job is speaking today.  Michelle Bowman is a Trump appointee and is likely to pound the table for cuts due to jobs data.  I'm sure she'll conspicuously skip over the massive inflation currently raging at the beginning of the supply chains.  

Bonds are holding that Quarterly VWAP level so far this morning (I mentioned it in yesterday's note).  We are seeing builders also lead this morning.  Generally, that's a "rate cut" kind of tone to the market.  Europe is in a good mood and up another 1% too. 

Poor South Korea is suffering from a hangover from all the Bitcoin speculation they've been doing.  Really major top setting up over there.  As a result of that weakness Bitcoin is struggling too.  Really toppy setup on some of the bitcoin stuff too.  I'm not a fan of any of that stuff right now. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

NQ Chatroom Moderator (Go2Mtg)

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp 

Morning Commentary for Monday, August 18, 2025 by Peter Cook

We got through Op-Ex this month and we are in the "window of weakness" as Cem Karson likes to say. It's proving its mettle this morning with a mini-liquidation event in crypto land over the weekend. I've been bearish on #Ethereum since the end of the week last week. I have also been called an idiot for doing so (same thing happened a few months ago when #Gold topped and it hasn't gone anywhere for months). Gold acting pretty healthy hanging in here digesting gains for 4 months I have to admit. Sell signals can often just mean a stock goes sideways to "burn off" overbought conditions and gold is doing that right now. The big thing I noticed that changed from Friday to Monday in the Options chain is a large, chunky put spread was added at 640 / 635 on #SPY. This is probably going to be there until September, and it could be interesting if we go down to 640 to test it. I would anticipate support at 635-640 on #SPY as a result and if we go under 635 things will get very bearish very quickly. #Housing data this morning showed builder sentiment remains low. I personally expected this to be a "beat" based on the performance of the stocks over the last few weeks. Often when the stocks go up, the sentiment improves. Not in this case. Builders again are slashing prices about 5% and the use of incentives has reached it's highest levels since the pandemic (66% of builders using buy downs or incentives like that to bring people in the door). It's rough out there and people are simply not budging because everyone believes rates are going down. 

 

Speaking of rates, bonds are resting on a key level with #TLT at 86.29. That is the Quarterly VWAP for the fund and can be a spot to see institutions come in an buy it. There should be a pretty big directional move coming for bonds on the weeklies and the catalyst is clear. Jackson Hole should cause them to move. 

Levels:

All the best;

 

 

Peter Cook

NQ Chatroom Moderator (Go2Mtg)

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

 

Sign-up link: https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/HAPDTS_NQ_details.asp