Hamzei Analytics Financial Network: 16

Three of the Last Five Days MOC Imbalances Have Been over 1 Billion to Buy

First Time in over 100 Weeks that None of the Weekly Support/Resistance Levels Were Touched.

Scheduled to be released tomorrow at 8:30am EST will be the May Non-Farm Payroll number which consensus is currently projecting to be in the 160,000 area. Below are the projections from some well known institutions from highest to lowest:

Lloyds 195K

JPM 182K

GS 165K

BofA 160K

UBS 160K

BarCap 150K

Citi 140K

MS 140K

Wells 135K

Deutsche 135K

BNP 110K

April's NFP was a print of 160K, a miss from the 180K consensus area. It's worth noting that only once in the last two years (24 months) has a NFP release missed projections in consecutive months. Interestingly, the time it did occur was in August and September of 2015, just months before the Fed approved its December rate hike.

Earlier today, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan suggested that a print of 100-150K is the "break even" mark, presumably the line where the unemployment percent maintains or declines.

In essence, even with the bar lower for tomorrow's number, a print near to expectations should be ample for the Fed to continue to beat the drum's of a rate hike, which should show accordingly, in the Fed Fund Rate Futures.

One final stat to consider is that today's SPX close was at a three month high. Each of the last 15 times the SPX closed the day before the NFP at said high, the NFP release day closed higher for the benchmark index.

Michael Blythe
HFT Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thursday June 2nd PreMarket Show

For more info on @Benzinga #PreMarket Show, click here

Talk about juicing up the market ahead of key NFP data (given recent FED comments about 2nd interest hike in 6 months): today in the last 30 seconds, we traded up to 5 ticks below CATH (Contract's All-Time High). Good luck tomorrow.

As always, the front-month vol bets by big traders is a good guide for where ES is heading in real-time.

Violent Close Today?
Yes, it was a reaction to end-month rally combined with a massive MOC. See our comments on the post before this one.

Given the very high MOC we saw tonight (near $2 Bils), which is End of Month too, the ES reaction near the Cash Close was a classic BUY the MOC Stocks and SELL the Futures.... thus a sharp sell off in ES for couple of 5-min bars.

Friday, June 3, 2016

First Time in over 100 Weeks that None of the Weekly Support/Resistance Levels Were Touched.

Thursday, June 2, 2016

Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Tuesday, May 31, 2016