Friday, June 19, 2015
#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Friday, June 19, 2015
For now the ESU5 overnight
(OVN) session is indicating higher; as long as holding above today’s key
threshold 2108 more upside will or
should come with ease. While above 2108
the upside targets are 2123s/24s
then new ATHs at 2128s-2132s zone.
If below 2108 the
profile is very thin which will equal good chance to fill and test 2104s/03s. If a breach below 2103 the bulls will still have nothing
to worry about as long as remaining and closing above 2101s/2100s.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Thursday, June 18, 2015
#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Thursday, June 18, 2015
The
key threshold for ESU5 today is 2084s-2080s zone. As long as holding
above 2080 today and also tomorrow
there is no need to waste time and energy mapping out lower levels after Yellen
once again gave the “all clear” for stocks at her press conference yesterday
with “economic data remains too weak to hike rates”; this means logic and
reality trading is out the window along with also being a must to be Long or get Long almost anywhere while ESU5
is trading above the 2080 level.
Not
if but once ESU5 breaks above 2100/01 the current downtrend will be
breached which then puts 2107s/08s
as the first upside target for today, and then once ESU5 closes above 2108s
the countdown to new ATHs will begin
sometime next week.
Not
that I was expecting a rate hike announcement yesterday but my personal
thoughts are the Fed lowered their GDP forecast to negate the rate hike chatter
until Greece is resolved or the Fed already knows what is going to happen with
Greece and they cannot or will not raise rates in hope US stocks will ignore
the Greece outcome.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Wednesday, June 17, 2015
After
yesterday’s straight up plus 34 point
ES move from last week’s value area
low (VAL) 2063/62 to last week’s
value area high (VAH) 2095/96 I will
not expect any exciting price action before FOMC later today. For now ESU5 is trading above yesterday’s value
area (VA) +2088s and as long as
above 2088s/87s there is chance of
more upside to 2097s/98s. If above 2098s either pre or post FOMC there
will be good chance to reach 2104s/05s
today.
If
ES gets back in value/below 2088s/87s
during RTH the 80% Rule will apply
to the downside with potential to reach the other side of value at 2078s/77s if
first getting through the first lower target for today at 2083s/82s.
If
there is going to be any decent downside today with legs it is highly unlikely
to occur before FOMC but if below 2077
post FOMC the final for the bulls to defend is 2071 otherwise the odds will increase for yesterday being nothing
more than Shorts covering ahead of FOMC and odds for a move/hold/close sometime
this week below the key 2062 will
also increase.
My
plan yesterday after the cash open was to either get Short if ES held below value/-2071s due to Monday’s overnight
(OVN) bearish price action or get Long
once/if back in value for the 80% Rule. Unfortunately due to the
immediate pop right at the cash open I missed the initial move to the 2083s target I mentioned in the pre-market
yesterday so I then considered getting Long
if ESU5 re-tested the VAL at 2072s/71s to confirm the Long
but the rotation from 2083s only
went to 2075s before the bullish
trend day grind continued throughout the entire rest of the day (ROD).
I
do not and never chase a trade so yesterday ended up being a “sit on hands day”
for me. For today I will not be looking to aggressively engage in trades before
FOMC unless ES gets back in value and if so I will look for Long opps at the 2083s/82s or 2078s/77s
targets before FOMC if indicators confirm the trades.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Tuesday, June 16, 2015
Yesterday
I mentioned there is no need to map out lower ESU5 levels until a breach below 2062 which for now is the overnight (OVN) low and now ESU5 is also testing value at 2071s after bouncing from 2062.
With such a bounce from 2062 and
with this week also being FOMC week I am still doubtful a 2062 breach will come with ease unless value holds both in the pre-market session and during RTH as well.
If
value holds for the bears I do see
potential to reach the 2051/50 area
ahead of FOMC if first getting through today’s first lower target at 2056s/55s but due to the everyday buy
the dip (BTD) script odds favor at least one attempt to get back in value/+2071s during the RTH session
today if not before the cash open. If back in value during RTH the 80%
Rule will apply to the upside with potential to reach the other side of value at 2078s/79s after and if first getting through the 2076s area.
Once/if
the bulls succeed to get above value/+2078s
the final for the bears to defend is 2082s/83s
otherwise the odds will increase for more upside ahead of FOMC and/or post
another Greece headline/rumor.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
